Saints vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
Emerging rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints have won four in a row and look to close the 2025/26 season on a hot streak when they travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
Shough threw for 333 yards, his second straight game with more than 300 yards passing, and had two touchdowns as the Saints recovered from an early 13-point deficit to defeat the Tennessee Titans, 34-26.
Atlanta is closing strong as well. The Falcons have won three straight and four of five. That includes a 27-24 victory at home Monday night over the Los Angeles Rams. Bijan Robinson rushed for a career-high 195 yards and scored two total touchdowns while the Falcons defence intercepted former MVP-favourite Matthew Stafford three times.
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are looking for the season sweep after knocking off the Saints in New Orleans last month, 24-10.
Atlanta is a 3-point favourite on the NFL odds, with the total set at 43.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Saints have won two straight and three of four on the road. They are 5-0 against the spread and 4-1 straight up in their past five games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their past five road contests. Atlanta is 6-3 against the spread in its last nine games.
New Orleans has played to the Under in 10 of 12 games, while the Falcons have played to the over in four of five.
New Orleans Saints
Shough’s emergence, despite a depleted offence, has propelled the Saints. He is 5-3 as a starter and has averaged 304.3 yards passing the past three weeks.
New Orleans is 29th in the league in scoring at 18.1 points a game, but the team is averaging 26.8 points during this four-game win streak. One big reason is that Shough is clicking with Chris Olave, who had eight catches for 119 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. Audric Estime had 94 yards and a touchdown on the ground for the Saints and was a massive boost to a run game that has been nonexistent this season.
Atlanta Falcons
Robinson had 224 yards from scrimmage against the Rams, setting a single-season franchise mark with 2,255 total scrimmage yards in the process. His presence easily offsets the vanilla numbers of Cousins, who went 13-for-20 for 126 yards and was clearly charged with simply not turning the ball over.
The team jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but only won with a 51-yard field goal by Zan Gonzalez in the game’s final minute. It’s too little, too late for a team that had serious division title and playoff aspirations.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Saints vs. Falcons?
The last time these teams met, New Orleans was held without an offensive touchdown, while Cousins threw for 199 yards and two scores. But the Saints held Robinson to just 70 yards rushing and 107 total yards from scrimmage, and since that contest, New Orleans has done a 180 and should head into the offseason on the strength of a five-game winning streak.
Look for Shough to have another strong statistical performance and lead the team to a 28-24 victory over the Falcons.
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