Ravens vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction
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Edgar Chaput
The NFL’s Week 11 slate is replete with contests that carry heavy division and conference consequences, with the Ravens vs. Steelers being one such event. Baltimore sits second in the AFC with a 7-3 record (they beat the Bengals in a thriller last week, 35-34). Pittsburgh is first via a 7-2 tally. They were in Washington in Week 10 and took down the Commanders in a nailbiter, 28-27.
Interestingly, our NFL odds give the edge to the visiting Ravens. They’re perched as -3 favourites.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Even though the Ravens operate with quarterback and two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, they’ve mostly failed when facing the Steelers in recent seasons. The Pennsylvanian-based franchise holds an 8-2 advantage over the past 10 meetings.
There is, however, a major caveat to that. In January 2024, 2023, and 2022, Baltimore went into battle with backup QBs, either because they had wrapped a playoff spot or Jackson was unavailable. For that matter, Baltimore’s last victory over their rivals in December 2022 was with backups as well. The truth is that Jackson doesn’t play the Steelers all that often. He is 2-4 against them for his career.
Baltimore is currently 5-4-1 ATS this season, which is far from great. Their trio of defeats translated to losses against the spread, as did their one-point win over Cincinnati last week. Take note that the over is 9-1. Baltimore scores the most points in the league (31.8 per game) and gains the most yards (440.2 per match). Conversely, they’re a bottom-10 defence, conceding 25.3 points a week.
There are no such worries for Pittsburgh against the spread. Mike Tomlin’s group is an excellent 7-2 so far this season. They’ve also covered four games in a row. Although it doesn’t appear like the over is doing well with a 5-4 tally, closer inspection reveals that it’s cashed in four times in a row.
Baltimore Ravens
It’s a good thing there will have been 10 days between last Thursday night’s Week 10 matchup at home to the Bengals and this looming Steelers match. The 35-34 victory was a heart-stopping affair from which the Ravens probably needed to catch their breath.
The first half was mostly low-scoring, with the visiting Bengals heading to the dressing room up 14-7. But the Ravens’ attack was a sleeping behemoth which erupted in the third and fourth quarters, and a defensive slugfest morphed into a shootout.
That Baltimore gained only 20 first downs to Cincinnati’s 27 can be partially explained by big yardage plays, like Jackson’s connection to WR Tylan Wallace in the fourth quarter that went for 84 yards to the house. Even Jackson’s decent but unspectacular 290 yards belie the sensational 141.4 QB rating. Mark Andrews and Nelson Agholor also hauled in TD tosses.
A point of concern was that the Ravens were penalized 11 times. They’re second last in the NFL, getting flagged 8.0 times on average per contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were also involved in a beguiling game when they visited the Washington Commanders in Week 10. The exciting 28-27 victory was further proof that QB Russell Wilson is probably the man to lead the team going forward.
Newcomer WR Mike Williams – a trade deadline acquisition – corralled a beautiful 32-yard pass in the end zone with only 2:22 left in the contest to send Pittsburgh on its way to victory. George Pickens, already a staple in the receiver corps, caught a 16-yard score in the first quarter, and TE Pat Freiermuth hauled a 3-yard toss in the second quarter.
It was certainly a game of inches. A fourth down play from the Commanders with less than a minute remaining required reviewing to discern that the Steelers had made a stop to seal the deal.
BAL
PIT