Point differential tells a vastly different story for the Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders, who face off Sunday in Indianapolis with their playoff hopes still alive. The Colts trail the Tennessee Titans by a game in the AFC South and have reeled off three straight wins, but could be without starting quarterback Carson Wentz for this pivotal matchup. That’s great news for a Raiders team still clinging to postseason aspirations thanks to back-to-back wins.

The Colts are 6.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 44.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Pay close attention to Wentz’s status this week; he’s in COVID-19 protocols for a second time this season, and if he can’t go, Indy’s odds will plummet as the team turns to unproven rookie Sam Ehlinger. The Colts have one of the top ATS records in the NFL this season at 10-5, but are a more pedestrian 4-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Raiders are a dismal 6-9 against the spread in 2021, and have covered just twice in their past eight games.

Sunday’s total is presently sitting in the mid-40s, though that will almost certainly move, as well, if Wentz is ultimately ruled out. Neither team has offered much of an edge from a totals slant this season, with the Colts coming in at 8-7 and the Raiders at 7-8. Las Vegas has gone 4-2 to the Under in its past six, but is 11-5 O/U in its previous 16 vs. the AFC. Indianapolis is also 4-2 in favour of the Under in its last six overall.

Las Vegas Raiders

The fate of the Raiders’ playoff hopes rest on a rebound from their star quarterback. Derek Carr has an outside shot at a 5,000-yard passing season but has looked less than impressive for more than a month now, with just five passing touchdowns and four interceptions over his last six games. Carr has only 20 passing TDs on the season; of the six other QBs with more than 4,000 passing yards, none of them have fewer than 30 passing touchdowns.

Indianapolis Colts

Regardless of whether the Colts have their starting quarterback in the lineup this weekend, bettors and fans can expect a heavy dose of an Indianapolis rush attack led by darkhorse MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor. The standout sophomore is on an absolute tear, leading the NFL rushing race (1,626) by a whopping 467 yards over runner-up Joe Mixon of Cincinnati. He’s also just three rushing TDs shy of becoming the first player with 20 in a season since 2006.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Raiders vs. Colts?