The two divisional clubs go head-to-head for the final time in the regular season this Sunday, with the outcome heavily affecting current playoff seeding.

There’s a scenario where if Kansas City wins, they return to the top seed in the AFC. There’s also a scenario where the Chiefs lose and drop to the six seed. For the Raiders, a win could put them back tied for a playoff spot but now they sit 10th in the AFC.

Kickoff at Arrowhead Stadium starts at 1 p.m. EST, where the Chiefs are a 9.5-point favourite at home with the over-under at 48.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Chiefs have owned the Raiders as of late, winning seven of their last eight contests. Although last season’s Raiders–Chiefs game in Missouri resulted in a 40-32 Las Vegas win. This season, these teams met back in Week 10 and Kansas City won in a 41-14 blow out.

Las Vegas has been a stout road team lately with eight wins in their last 11 away games. Kansas City’s only covered in two of their seven home games in 2021, but are 5-2 straight up. The Chiefs have struggled to cover spreads overall, typically because of heavily they’re favoured, with just six covers in their last 20 outings.

Las Vegas Raiders

A 1-4 slump has put the Raiders in an uphill battle. Last week’s 17-15 home loss to Washington was the latest loss for Las Vegas, a game in which they allowed 10 points in the fourth quarter.

Derek Carr passed for 249 yards in the win but no scores. He’s second in the NFL in passing with 3,663 yards but has only 17 touchdowns to show for — every other quarterback in the top 10 has at least 22.

Tight end Darren Waller did not practise Wednesday with a back and knee injury, and neither did team leading-tackler Denzyl Perryman (ankle). Waller missed last week’s loss.

Kansas City Chiefs

If you haven’t heard, the Chiefs defence is back. Kansas City’s allowed no more than 17 points in any of their past five wins including back-to-back games where they held opponents to nine points each. Just like that, Kansas City is eighth in points against (21.6), improved to 26th in yards against (367.7), and have the second-best red zone defence the past three weeks.

Ironically, the Chiefs are just 13th in points for. In those five wins, Patrick Mahomes has thrown seven touchdowns — five against the Raiders on November 14, and two against the four clubs combined.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Raiders vs. Chiefs?