These are two teams in very different positions. While the Chiefs improved to an NFL-best 10-1 with a 30-27 win in Carolina last week, the Raiders lost their seventh straight game, 29-19 against Denver.

Kansas City is a heavy 13-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total set at 42.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These teams split the season series last year, but overall the Chiefs have won seven of the last eight head-to-heads. They’ve already met once in 2024, with Kansas City winning 27-20 in Week 8.

The Chiefs remains undefeated at Arrowhead with a 5-0 home record this season. That’s not good news for a Las Vegas team that has lost five of six road games. The Raiders have only won two of their last 11 trips to Kansas City, although one of those wins came on Christmas Day last year.

Neither team has been very profitable for bettors. Las Vegas is 4-7 against the spread, while Kansas City is 5-6 ATS. Keep in mind, divisional games tend to be closer scoring and this is a huge number for the Chiefs to cover. Kansas City has also failed to cover in five straight games and they haven’t won by more than one score since Week 7.

Las Vegas Raiders

With Gardner Minshew sidelined for the rest of the season with a broken collarbone, Aidan O’Connell make his first start on Friday since breaking his thumb on October 20. O’Connell previously started on October 13 against Pittsburgh, completing 27 of 40 passes for 227 yards with a touchdown and interception. He was actually the starting quarterback when the Raiders won at Arrowhead last Christmas, although he didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter.

It would be a massive upset if Las Vegas wins this game, but there’s a path for them to cover the spread. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is a beast and Kansas City’s pass blocking hasn’t been great this season. You can also look at rookie tight end Brock Bowers to produce offensively. The Chiefs allow the most yards to tight ends in the NFL and Bowers is two weeks removed from putting up 127 receiving yards in Miami.

Kansas City Chiefs

Hammer Patrick Mahomes props this week because he loves eviscerating the Raiders. Mahomes has the best numbers of his career against Las Vegas. In 13 games, Mahomes is 11-2, throwing for 32 TDs and 3,835 yards. That’s an average of just under three TDs and almost 350 passing yards per game. It’s doesn’t hurt that there’s plenty of bulletin board material after a video surfaced of the Raiders dressing up a Kermit doll as Mahomes back in training camp.

The big concern is Kansas City’s tendency to play down to their opponent. The Chiefs should have destroyed Carolina last week, but they barely squeaked out a win. As mentioned, they haven’t won by more than one score in over a month and in addition to Carolina, they barely scraped past Denver and Tampa Bay in the last few weeks. It would be shocking if Kansas City didn’t win this game outright, but covering the spread is a different story.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Raiders vs. Chiefs?