Patriots vs. Steelers Point Spread: NFL Week 15 Odds, Prediction

David Bastl | Updated Dec 12, 2018

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Sunday promises to be an instant classic between Big Ben and Tom Terrific. In their last 11 games played the Patriots are 9-2 straight up against the Steelers, and 5-1 against the spread in the last six games in the Steel City.

AT
December 16, 2018, 4:25 PM ET
Heinz Field
Pointspread -2.5 -115
Moneyline -155
Over / Under o +55.5

78%

Betting Action

22%

Pointspread +2.5 -105
Moneyline +135
Over / Under u +55.5

78%

Betting Action

22%

Both the Patriots and Steelers were caught looking ahead to this game here in week 15. Last weekend both teams were heavy favourites on the road, and both teams lost late in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, this date has been circled on the calendar in these locker rooms for some time.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These two teams have been the super-powers of the AFC the last number of years. However, head-to-head, it’s been all Patriots for the last decade plus. In their last 11 games played the Patriots are 9-2 straight up against the Steelers, and 5-1 against the spread in the last six games in the Steel City.

The Steelers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against the AFC. They are also 3-4 straight up at Heinz Field, which is very unlike the Steelers. In the previous four seasons, the Steelers are 24-8 straight on home turf.

New England Patriots

Head Coach Bill Belichick may have said it best when he was quoted post game in Miami, “They just made one more play than we did.” This statement is very true, as the Patriots lost to the Dolphins on what will be known from this time forward as the Miami Miracle. But there’s a good argument to be made that the Patriots were very sloppy in this game, and allowed a team (Dolphins) that were 9.5-point underdogs an opportunity to win it at the end.

One player that stood out, and he always does, was Tom Brady. Brady threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns breaking a NFL record for career touchdown passes (including post season). All three of his main targets, Rob Gronkowski (8-107 yards), Josh Gordon (5-96 yards) and Julien Edelman (9-86 yards) had big games.

The big test Sunday will be if the Patriots 22nd ranked defence, can hold down the Steelers 4th ranked offence led by Ben Roethlisberger who is ranked second in passing with 4227 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have picked a terrible time to go on a slide as they enter this game with the Patriots on a three-game losing streak. There are a number of factors and reasons why this team- who just a month ago was running away with the division- now will struggle to grab a playoff spot in the AFC.

First off, the fourth quarter has not been good to this team. In their last three losses they have been outscored 39-14 in the fourth. In their last two games, they have watched their opposition come back in the fourth quarter to win. Last Sunday in Oakland was the best example of this, as the Steelers who were 10 point favourites in the game, let the Raiders drive the length of the field twice of them to win only their third game of the season.

Next, the running attack has completely disappeared. At the start of the season, James Connor was making news replacing Le’Veon Bell. But, this team ranks 29th in the league in rush offence, for an average of 89 rushes per game, just dismal. During the losing streak the Steelers as a team have rushed for 75, 65 and last weekend against a Raiders team that has allowed an average of 153.3 rush yards per game, the Steelers managed 40 yards on 19 carries.

Patriots vs. Steelers Prediction

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