Patriots vs. Ravens Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction
The two teams meet up this Sunday at 8:20 pm ET with serious playoff implications on the line for both.
New England jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but allowed touchdowns on five consecutive drives and fell at home to the Buffalo Bills, 35-31. The loss kept New England from clinching the AFC East for the first time since 2019. The Ravens played perhaps their most complete game of the season and gained a measure of revenge in a 24-0 shutout of a Cincinnati Bengals team that had thrashed them on Thanksgiving night.
The two-time defending AFC North champs stayed within a game of the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Patriots fell a game behind the Denver Broncos for the AFC’s top seed.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
New England is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread on the road. The Patriots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and have played to the Over six times in their past eight contests.
The Ravens are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games, but they have won six of eight to jump back into the playoff race. They are 2-6 ATS at home and have played to the Under five times in seven games.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 100 yards or more five times this season, and recently surpassed 1,000 yards for the seventh time in eight years. He is listed at -115 to rush for 81+ yards on the Sunday night NFL odds.
New England Patriots
The Patriots offence sputtered in the second half against the Bills, totalling just 100 yards; 62 of those came on Henderson’s second long touchdown of the day. Drake Maye had a pedestrian day under centre, going 14 for 23 for 155 yards and one critical second-half interception. However, he also rushed for 43 yards and two touchdowns. The team totalled 246 yards on the ground and averaged 9.8 yards per carry.
Still, they need rookie left tackle Will Campbell back sooner rather than later, but he isn’t expected to return until the playoffs. Defensive stalwart Milton Williams doesn’t get off injured reserve himself until next week, and the team’s leading tackler, Robert Spillane, did not play last week.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson only completed eight passes for 150 yards, but more importantly, he ended a career-long streak of five games without multiple touchdown passes in a game.
The Ravens had 189 yards on the ground, 100 for Henry (9.1-yard average on 11 carries) and 66 on eight carries for Keaton Mitchell. The Patriots allowed Buffalo’s stud running back James Cook to rush for over 100 yards and two touchdowns, which should be Baltimore’s aim with Henry as well.
Baltimore has historically been a difficult place for the Patriots to play, and the Patriots are undefeated on the road, but the Ravens have lost two straight at M&T Bank Stadium.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. Ravens?
The Patriots have been fearless on the road, with wins at Buffalo and Tampa Bay, and they know how to win close games, taking five results by six points or less away from home.
However, coming off the Bills letdown, and with division rivals New York and Miami on deck, this feels like a week when New England stumbles against a Ravens side that needs a win and may finally be reaching their true form on both sides of the ball.
Look for Baltimore to eke out a 24-21 victory.
NE
BAL