Patriots vs. Lions Point Spread: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Sep 17, 2018

Matt-stafford

When the Lions played at home in Week 1 against an AFC East team, things went very badly. They try again this Sunday night when they host the Patriots.

AT
September 23, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
Ford Field
Detroit
6-10
Pointspread -7 -120
Moneyline -345
Over / Under o +55

85%

Betting Action

15%

Pointspread +7 +100
Moneyline +275
Over / Under u +55

85%

Betting Action

15%

Not much history between the Patriots and Lions as they only play once every four years in the regular season these days and 11 times overall with New England leading 7-4.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Pats won the last one in 2014 at home 34-9 behind 349 yards passing and two touchdowns from Tom Brady – who played collegiately about 40 miles from Detroit at the University of Michigan. Matthew Stafford was not good that day, completing 18 of 46 with an interception.

There’s one clear storyline here and it involves first-year Lions head coach Matt Patricia. He was formerly the defensive coordinator of the Patriots for six seasons, and his last game with the franchise went horribly as Philadelphia’s Nick Foles torched Patricia’s unit in Super Bowl LII. Lions general manager Bob Quinn knew Patricia because Quinn previously spent 16 years in the Patriots’ personnel department. Head coaches from the Bill Belichick tree have actually not fared that well by and large. Patricia reportedly turned down the Giants job for Detroit.

The favourite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

New England Patriots

Bad news for the Lions here potentially as the Patriots were dominated in a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville on Sunday in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game. New England very rarely plays poorly in back-to-back weeks. In fact, it hasn’t lost back-to-back regular-season games since Weeks 12-13 in 2015. Brady clearly misses receiver Julian Edelman, who is suspended the first four games.

New England lost defensive lineman Trey Flowers and defensive back Patrick Chung to reported concussions against the Jags. That defence was shredded for 481 yards by Blake Bortles. Starting right tackle Marcus Cannon missed the game with a calf injury. The Pats are 8-1 ATS in their past nine vs. teams with a losing record.

Detroit Lions

Patricia’s new defence has not been good as the Lions have surrendered 78 points in starting 0-2. They lost 30-27 Sunday at San Francisco. Detroit actually outgained the Niners 427-346. Matthew Stafford bounced back from a four-interception debacle Week 1 vs. the Jets by throwing for 347 yards and three scores against the 49ers. He attempted 53 passes in trying to lead his team back from a 27-13 third-quarter hole.

The Lions were without one of their best defenders in San Francisco as end Ezekiel Ansah sat with a shoulder injury. Then in the third quarter, Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay left with a concussion. Running back LeGarrette Blount, one of a handful of former Patriots on Detroit, was questionable to play with a shoulder injury but did – and then was ejected in the fourth quarter for shoving a 49ers player. Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 September games.

Patriots vs. Lions Prediction

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