Patriots vs. Falcons Point Spread: Super Bowl LI Odds

The NFL is clearly a quarterback-driven league, and they are its biggest stars. However, with all due respect to guys like Wilson, Eli Manning or Joe Flacco, we really have had just two spectacular quarterback matchups in the Super Bowl this decade: Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning in XLIV and Aaron Rodgers vs. Ben Roethlisberger the next season. The matchup under center for Super Bowl LI in Houston on Sunday, Feb. 5, is about as good as you can ask for as Matt Ryan leads his underdog Atlanta Falcons against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Point spread:Patriots -3

Over/under: 58.5

Date: Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. ET

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston

New England Patriots

I recommended New England (16-2) at -5.5 at home against Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game and the Patriots barely broke a sweat in a 36-17 victory. Brady was magnificent in throwing for 384 yards, a franchise playoff record, and three touchdowns. It’s frankly amazing how the Patriots seem to find an offensive diamond in the rough every postseason. In that game, it was undrafted receiver Chris Hogan (from little Monmouth) who blew up for 180 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions. Chris Hogan, like Julian Edelman, who was another Patriots find as a 2009 seventh-round pick from Kent State, added 118 yards and a TD on eight catches — it was his third straight 100-yard game. Who needs the injured Rob Gronkowski?

Brady tied Joe Montana’s playoff record with ninth three-TD passing performance. It was also Brady’s 11th 300-yard postseason game, extending his NFL record. He is looking to win a fifth Super Bowl ring, which no other QB has done. He’s currently tied with Montana and Terry Bradshaw with four titles. It’s the seventh Super Bowl appearance for Brady and Bill Belichick, the most of any QB and head coach. At 39, Brady will match Peyton Manning (last year) as the oldest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. It’s New England’s ninth trip overall, also a league mark.

New England won its ninth straight game and ended Pittsburgh’s nine-game winning streak. It certainly didn’t help the Steelers that star running back Le’Veon Bell left late in the first quarter with a groin injury, but it probably wouldn’t have mattered had he kept playing.

The Patriots have won the past four meetings with the Falcons, but the teams haven’t played since early in the 2013 season (they will play in the 2017 season in Foxboro). It’s the sixth straight Super Bowl where New England has opened as a favourite. It’s the highest betting total in Super Bowl history — no surprise considering the quarterbacks.

Atlanta Falcons

I have to admit I was wrong on the Falcons (13-5) in the NFC Championship Game against Green Bay as I recommended the Packers at +3.5. Once Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby missed an early field goal to cut Atlanta’s try and lead to 7-3, the game was essentially over.

The Falcons rolled to a 44-21 victory. Ryan, who is expected to be named the NFL MVP on Super Bowl weekend over Brady, threw for 392 yards and four touchdowns and also ran for a score — he’s not usually the most mobile guy. Ryan has thrown for more passing yards in his career (37,701) than any other quarterback making his first start in the Super Bowl. He is 0-2 in his career against the Patriots but did throw for 421 yards against them in a 30-23 home loss four years ago. Ryan, incidentally, has a lot of fans in New England as he starred at Boston College.

Julio Jones showed why he’s the best receiver in football with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores, including a stellar 73 yard catch-and-run touchdown vs. Green Bay, and he was playing through a toe injury. The extra week off before the Super Bowl can only help Jones. He is now one of three players with multiple postseason games of 180 receiving yards. Jones had 182 yards in a loss to the 49ers in the 2012 NFC Championship Game. The individual matchup to watch in Super Bowl LI will be Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler, the hero of New England’s Super Bowl win over Seattle three years ago, against Jones.

Atlanta had the NFL’s highest-scoring offense by far in the regular season at 33.8 points per game. That number has risen to 40 points per game in the playoffs. New England led the NFL in points allowed during the season at 15.6 per game. It’s the sixth time since the merger that the No. 1 scoring offense will face the No. 1 scoring defense in the Super Bowl. The defensive leader has won four of the previous five, most recently Seattle 43-8 over Denver three years ago.

It’s the second Super Bowl appearance for the Falcons. They lost XXXIII to the Denver Broncos 34-19 in Hall of Famer John Elway’s final NFL game.

Patriots vs. Falcons Predictions

Brady has lost a Super Bowl to only one quarterback: Eli Manning, who beat him twice. The Patriots obviously have a lot more experience dealing with all the Super Bowl distractions, although Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator of those Seattle Super Bowl teams in the 2013-14 seasons.

I’m taking the Falcons here but will recommend the 3.5-point alternate line at -128. Atlanta has simply beaten better teams this season than the Patriots have. The way both Ryan and Brady are going, you have to lean over that high total.