Patriots vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 16, 2021

It’s a playoff-hopeful team from each conference in the Thursday night NFL game in Week 11 as the New England Patriots visit the Atlanta Falcons.

AT
November 18, 2021, 8:20 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
7-10
Pointspread -7 -102
Moneyline -296
Over / Under o +47.5

74%

Betting Action

26%

Pointspread +7 -120
Moneyline +241
Over / Under u +47.5

74%

Betting Action

26%

The Pats are 6.5-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 47 points.

Thursday Night Football Point Spread and Betting Analysis

New England should be a playoff team this winter, albeit as a wild card because Buffalo likely wins the AFC East again. Atlanta might get the NFC’s final wild-card spot with some good fortune. Probably not, though.

This could be the final prime-time game in the Atlanta Falcons career of former league MVP and future Hall of Fame quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons are somewhat caught in the middle right now of rebuilding and being a fringe playoff contender. If they fade down the stretch, moving on from Ryan this off-season is a serious possibility.

Ryan led the Falcons to one Super Bowl: Following the 2016 season (Ryan’s MVP year) when Atlanta had a 28-3 third-quarter lead over the Patriots but managed to lose 34-28 in overtime, still the only Super Bowl OT. The last regular-season meeting between the teams was in the 2017 campaign and the Pats won that, too, 23-7. They lead the all-time series 9-6, including playoffs, and have won the past six – all thanks to Tom Brady, who is now in Ryan’s NFC South. The Patriots covered the spread in all six.

New England Patriots

A lot of NFL teams are going to be kicking themselves for passing on Alabama’s Mac Jones in this year’s draft. He fell into New England’s lap at No. 15 and is the Offensive Rookie of the Year favourite. In Sunday’s 45-7 blowout of a good Cleveland team, Jones had a career-high rating of 142.1 by completing 19 of 23 for 198 yards and three touchdowns. With top running back Damien Harris out with a concussion, rookie Rhamondre Stevenson got his first start and rushed for 100 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

New England had an unthinkable three touchdown drives of at least 90 yards, a first under Bill Belichick. He won his 250th regular-season game with the Patriots to tie Tom Landry (250 with Cowboys) and become the fourth NFL coach with at least 250 wins with one team. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their past four games.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta was completely outclassed Sunday in a 43-3 loss as Matt Ryan completed just 9-for-21 for 117 yards and two picks. He was mercifully pulled late with the game out of hand. Ryan’s 117 yards were the fewest of his career when he attempted at least 10 passes. Atlanta’s most unique offensive player this week has been receiver/running back/returner Cordarrelle Patterson, but he has an ankle injury and isn’t looking good for Thursday. Atlanta could have taken the Patriots’ Mac Jones at No. 4 overall in this year’s draft as Ryan’s long-term replacement but opted for Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. He is going to be a star, having caught 40 passes for 606 yards and a TD. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its past 10 after an ATS loss.

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