Patriots vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 14 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 06, 2017

Patriots-vs-Dolphins

If it seems like these teams just played, they did. New England was the biggest favourite of the 2017 season at -17 and beat Miami 35-17 in Week 12.

AT
December 11, 2017, 8:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
6-10
Pointspread -12 -110
Moneyline -700
Over / Under o +48.5

71%

Betting Action

29%

Pointspread +12 -110
Moneyline +500
Over / Under u +48.5

71%

Betting Action

29%

Week 14 of the NFL season closes out Monday night with an AFC East matchup and what looks like a mismatch on paper as New England visits Miami.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Should New England win this game? No question as it’s the far superior team. However, some potential speedbumps can be found. For one, the Patriots have had trouble in Miami in recent years. Yes, they won there 35-14 in Week 17 last year to clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and complete a perfect road record. However, the Pats lost their previous three in south Florida. In addition, could they be looking ahead to next Sunday’s AFC game of the year in Pittsburgh? The winner there is likely to be the AFC’s top seed in this year’s playoffs.

Last time these two played, Tom Brady threw four touchdown passes, two to Rob Gronkowski. It was Brady’s 28th career game with four or more touchdown passes, which ranks third all-time. ​It was also Brady’s 27th career game with at least four TD passes and one or fewer interceptions. That moved him into second all-time behind current Saints QB Drew Brees, who has 28. Miami’s QB that day was backup Matt Moore with Jay Cutler sidelined due to a concussion. Moore threw for 215 yards and a score but was intercepted twice and sacked seven times. The Dolphins were outgained 417-221.

The Patriots are 7-3 SU in the past 10 in the series and 7-3 ATS – winning and covering the past three.

New England Patriots

The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) won their eighth in a row Sunday, 23-3 in Buffalo, and are on the verge of clinching the AFC East for the 14th time in the past 15 years. The only time they didn’t win it in that span was 2008 when Brady went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1. The win over the Bills was Brady’s 27th against that team, setting an NFL record for most wins by a quarterback against any opponent. He threw for 258 yards but no touchdowns and was picked off once. Rex Burkhead rushed for two scores.

It was also New England’s 14th straight road win, the second-longest such streak in league history. The league record is 18 by the San Francisco 49ers from 1988-90. It’s possible that star tight end Rob Gronkowski is suspended for this game. He was flagged for a dirty hit on Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White.

Miami Dolphins

Miami (5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) ended a five-game losing streak by beating a bad Broncos team on Sunday, 35-9. The Dolphins had an interception return for a touchdown and two safeties for the first time ever. Miami entered the game with four interceptions on the season and had three against Trevor Siemian. Kenyan Drake rushed for 120 yards for Miami on 23 carries, both career highs. He also rushed for a score, only the team’s second rushing TD of the year. Cutler returned from a one-game injury absence and threw for 235 yards and two scores.

Patriots vs Dolphins Prediction

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