This game will have a much higher importance than some of the other recent meetings between these teams in Miami. At 6-6, the Dolphins are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, at 9-3 the Patriots are competing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Will Miami remain in the thick of the playoff hunt with another home win over New England? Or will the Patriots buck that recent trend and pick up an important win on the road? Here is a closer look at the matchup.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

New England is just 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five trips to Miami. However, the Patriots have covered the spread in five of their last six games this season to improve to 8-4 against the spread overall, so something will have to give when they travel to Hard Rock Stadium this weekend. New England is currently listed as an eight-point favorite for this matchup.

The Dolphins are 5-1 against the spread at home this season, compared to 2-4 ATS on the road. Miami has performed much better as the host team, which is something to keep in mind this weekend. The Dolphins are 3-1 versus AFC East opponents this season but their lone loss was a 38-7 defeat at the hands of the Patriots back in September.

New England Patriots

New England has done an excellent job maintaining a strong balance on offence this season. The Patriots rank 11^th in the NFL in rushing offence and ninth in passing yards. The healthy return of running back Sony Michel has provided a boost to the New England attack. With Michel in the backfield, the Patriots can lean even more on their play-action pass attack.

The New England defence has maintained a bend but don’t break approach to the season. The Patriots have given up a good amount of yards but not a lot of points. Turnovers could be the key to this week’s matchup once again. Tom Brady and company put up 38 points in the first meeting between these teams. If the New England defence can force Ryan Tannehill and company in to turning the ball over, they should have an excellent chance to win and cover on the road. Each of the Patriots’ last four wins have come by 14 points or more.

Miami Dolphins

The fact that the Dolphins are 6-6 is even more impressive when you consider the injuries they have dealt with including quarterback Ryan Tannehill missing more time. Tannehill is healthy again and he got the job done in last week’s 21-17 win over the Buffalo Bills with three touchdown passes. Miami desperately needs a strong performance from Tannehill this weekend against New England. They also need running backs Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore to deliver on the ground. The bigger question is on the other side of the football where there are obvious concerns about the defence.

The Dolphins gave up 17 points to the Bills last week but it would have looked much worse if tight end Charles Clay didn’t drop a potential game-winning touchdown when he was wide open in the end zone on the final play of the game. Miami has allowed 27 points or more in each of its six losses this season, including 38 points in its loss to the Patriots. If the defence struggles again versus Brady and company, it’s unreasonable to think that Tannehill and company will be able to keep up and go score for score with New England.

The Dolphins have dominated the recent head-to-head meetings with the Patriots at home, but that might not be the case this time around as both teams have everything to play for this weekend.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction