Patriots vs. Dolphins Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Jan 06, 2022

The Patriots ended their two-game losing streak as they smoked the Jaguars 50-10 last week. It was their 10th victory of the year, one that clinched them a spot in the AFC playoffs.

AT
January 09, 2022, 4:25 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami
9-8
Pointspread -6.5 -105
Moneyline -275
Over / Under o +41

62%

Betting Action

38%

Pointspread +6.5 -115
Moneyline +220
Over / Under u +41

62%

Betting Action

38%

As for the Miami Dolphins, they saw their hopes get slashed after a brutal 34-3 shellacking by the Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins miraculous seven-game winning streak has come to an end and their playoff hopes have dissolved, but they can still play spoiler against a Patriots team hoping to get a higher seed.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

New England is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when coming into the matchup as the favorite and they are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games overall. They have struggled against Miami on the road though against the spread, losing seven of their last nine in that category. Luckily, the over has been consistent for them. Cashing out in seven of their past nine games against teams in the AFC conference.

As for the Dolphins, they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when allowing their opponent to score more than 30 points in the previous matchup. They have been 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall on top of that. In the last 19 meetings between the Dolphins and Patriots, the home team has walked away with the win in 15 of them against the spread.

New England Patriots

Everything was clicking for the Patriots last week as they ripped apart another team led by a rookie quarterback. Bill Belichick just keeps on dominating rookie passers and got his team a perfect game plan for the lowly Jaguars. New England snagged three interceptions and didn’t allow a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Mac Jones kept on pushing forward with his Rookie of the Year case as well, throwing for 227 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. New England is wildly well-rounded but will get a tough test from a Dolphins team that had been red-hot prior to last week. We’ll see if Belichick and the Pats defense can confuse another young passer in Tua Tagovailoa.

Miami Dolphins

After such a stellar run to somehow get themselves back in the playoff picture, the Dolphins fell flat in a must-win game. The blame doesn’t just go on one person as the whole team wasn’t ready to go. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards and an interception in the loss, and their leading rusher was Duke Johnson with seven carries for 49 yards. The Titans didn’t even have to do much offensively as their rush offense led the way. They ran for 188 total yards against them. That’s a huge area of concern as the Patriots come to town. If New England is able to run so freely, Miami probably isn’t going to win.

This is an important performance for Tua if he wants to be the Dolphins starter next season. His 48.8 QBR is 18th in the NFL and has underwhelmed this season. He has five interceptions, three fumbles (one lost) and just three touchdowns in his last three games. If he doesn’t play better in this spot, the Dolphins will likely be looking for a new starter in the offseason.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. Dolphins?

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