Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Playoffs AFC Championship Game Player Prop Predictions
Two traditional AFC powers missing the past few years are back in the AFC Championship Game as the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.
Denver, a three-time Super Bowl champion, is back in the conference championship game for the first time in a decade after a costly 33-30 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills last week. QB Bo Nix threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns, but he also broke his ankle in one of the final plays leading up to Wil Lutz’s game-winning field goal. He will be replaced by Jarrett Stidham, who has appeared in 20 games over six seasons, but took just one snap this year.
Denver’s opponent, the Patriots, quickly emerged from successive 4-13 seasons thanks to new coach Mike Vrabel, the ascendance of second-year quarterback Drake Maye, and an accommodating schedule. Maye overcame three turnovers and threw for three touchdowns as New England reached the conference championship game for the first time in seven seasons with a 28-16 victory over the Houston Texans.
Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Player Prop Odds and Betting Trends
Nix’s absence changes the setting for Sunday’s game considerably. The Patriots are now firmly established as five-point favourites, with the Over/Under sitting at a relatively low 42 points. New England’s defence harassed both Los Angeles’ QB Justin Herbert and Houston’s QB C.J. Stroud. Stidham, far less experienced and talented than either of those two, will receive no mercy from the Pats D.
There is also some late news on the Broncos’ front, with running back J.K. Dobbins possibly returning for this game after being on injured reserve since early November. He still led the team in rushing despite missing seven games.
With New England’s defence already posting two solid postseason outings, and Denver playing without their starting QB, there are several prop opportunities with lower yardage, attempts, and completions numbers than normal.
Jarrett Stidham over 31.5 passing attempts (-120)
Stidham, originally drafted by the Patriots, has thrown 197 passes in his six-year career. His season-high was 83 with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022. He has thrown a total of 66 passes in three years in Denver, all in 2023, before Bo Nix arrived. So this game is already over, right? Not so fast.
Stidham will relish the opportunity to shock the world and show up his former employers on Sunday. He will use his arm and legs, as he offers a similar mobility option to Nix. But with a stagnant running game, even with the possible return of a rusty Dobbins, Stidham is going to have to throw the ball, especially if the Broncos fall behind early.
Denver’s defence may make life hell again for Maye, but he still found holes in the top-ranked Texans defence. Look for him to do the same against Denver. Stidham will have to counter through the air throughout Sunday’s contest.
Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown (+115)
Rhamondre Stevenson has continued his late-season resurgence after returning from injury and has averaged 104.5 yards from scrimmage in the Patriots’ two playoff wins. However, he has not found the end zone after scoring six times in the team’s final three regular-season games.
New England has often wilted in goal-line rushing situations, but Stevenson, who has seven receptions in the postseason, is a tremendous option out of the backfield as Maye and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels look to take advantage of Denver’s aggression and over-pursuit on the line.
Stefon Diggs 75+ receiving yards (+300)
This is a bold prediction, even as Diggs had a touchdown reception against the Texans last week and became New England’s first 1,000-yard receiver in six years. Diggs only has nine catches for 99 yards over the Patriots’ last three games, going back to the regular season finale against Miami.
But make no mistake, he’s coming to play on Sunday. The 11-year veteran has yet to reach the Super Bowl in his time with Minnesota, Buffalo, and Houston. This may be his last and best chance, and I expect him to produce like he knows that on Sunday.
