Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 13 Odds, Prediction

Andrew Rogers | Updated Dec 03, 2017


It’s business as usual for the Patriots, who have all but locked up a top seed in the AFC playoffs behind perennial MVP candidate Tom Brady.

We’re now into late November and early December, when people’s thoughts traditionally shift to snow tires and Christmas shopping – and the New England Patriots finish off yet another AFC East title. The Pats can take a major step toward their annual goal with a victory this weekend against the host Buffalo Bills. New England is the class of the AFC, having reeled off seven consecutive victories while allowing no more than 17 points in any of them.

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Point spread: Bills +9 Date: Sunday, December 3, 1 p.m. ET Location: New Era Field, Buffalo, N.Y.

Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bills are getting close to double digits in this one, and they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five home games. That said, everything else is working in the Patriots’ favour; they’ve covered in 11 of their previous 13 games at New Era Field and are 12-2 ATS in their previous 14 road games overall. And that has Sports Interaction bettors focused squarely on the favourite, with 78 percent leaning toward the Patriots into this one.

More than 60 percent of bettors like the under play on the 48.5-point total, presumably because of the Patriots’ lockdown defence. But New England has gone above the total in seven of its previous 10 games against AFC opponents, and is is 18-8 O/U in its last 26 games against teams with winning records. Buffalo has exceeded the total in five of its last six games, and is 16-5 O/U in its previous 21 home contests.

New England Patriots

New England wouldn’t be here were it not for a dramatic defensive turnaround from a team that surrendered 30 points in three of its first four games. Few teams build on their momentum as effectively as the Patriots, who have covered in 16 of their previous 21 games following a straight-up victory.

Buffalo Bills

Bettors and fans alike are having trouble getting a handle on the Bills, who remain in the playoff hunt but have been coached like a team aiming for a prime seat at the draft. One game after Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in a 30-point loss in Los Angeles, Tyrod Taylor regained the starting QB role and led the Bills to a 16-10 triumph over Kansas City. But Taylor and the Bills are in tough, having gone just 3-26 against Brady in his career.

Patriots vs. Bills prediction

Patriots 27, Bills 21