Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 16 Odds, Prediction
Buffalo improved to 11-3 with last week’s 48-42 shootout win in Detroit, but there’s certainly been some defensive questions raised over the last two weeks as the Bills have played back-to-back games in which they both scored and allowed 40 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is the New England Patriots, who fell to 3-11 with a 30-17 loss in Arizona last week. There’s a legit possibility the Pats will finish dead last in the NFL this season as only the Giants (2-12) and Raiders (2-12) currently have a worse record.
This is the biggest Week 16 spread, with Buffalo coming in as a 14-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, while the total is pegged at 46.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
These teams split the season series last year. New England covered the spread as an 8.5-point underdog in late October and covered again as a 14.5-point dog on New Years Eve. It broke a streak of four straight covers for the Bills in head-to-head action.
The Patriots haven’t been kind to bettors this season, however, as they are just 5-8-1 against the spread while failing to cover in four of their last five divisional games. On the flip side, Buffalo is 9-5 ATS overall, with covers in four of their last five games.
When it comes to totals betting, the Bills could almost singlehandedly cover this number based on the points they have produced over the last two weeks. Both teams have hit nine Overs in 2024 and seven of the last 10 head-to-heads have finished above the number.
Here’s one last thing to consider about this spread and pay attention because it’s pretty telling. While 14 points is a massive number, Buffalo has beaten opponents by more than 14 points five times this season, which is a staggering number. Want to guess how many times New England has lost by more than 14 points? Also five times.
New England Patriots
While Drake Maye has had a solid rookie season despite playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL, interceptions are an issue. Maye is fourth among rookie quarterbacks in both total passing yards (1,898) and passing TDs (12), but he’s also thrown the second-most interceptions with nine picks in nine games. He’s thrown an interception is six straight games and I don’t see that streak breaking against a Bills defence that has 13 interceptions in 14 games (eighth-most in NFL).
Buffalo Bills
Last week showed exactly why Josh Allen is the clear-cut favourite to win MVP this season. The dual threat quarterback threw for 363 yards and two TDs and rushed for 68 yards and another two scores on the ground. Allen has five passing TDs and five rushing TDs over the last two weeks and he’s scored at least one passing and rushing TD in four straight games. In 14 games, Allen has a 64.4 completion percentage for 3,395 yards, 25 TDs and just five interceptions. He’s also rushed for 484 yards and another 11 TDs on the ground. With two games against the Patriots and one against the Jets to close out the regular season, Allen should only continue to pad those stats.
NE
BUF