One of the most important games remaining in the AFC this season concludes Week 13 around the NFL as the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills on Monday night. The Bills are 3-point favourites to win on the NFL odds with a total of 44 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Monday is the first of two – maybe three if we include playoffs – meetings between the Patriots and Bills as they play again in Week 16. At 8-4, New England has a half-game lead over Buffalo (7-4) in the AFC East, but the Bills obviously have a game in hand as New England still hasn’t had its by week, which comes following this game. To win the AFC East, Buffalo is -148 and New England +115. The top seed in the conference also is in play, currently held by Baltimore (8-3). The Ravens don’t play the Bills or Patriots.

It has to be truly aggravating to Bills fans that they finally got rid of Tom Brady, who simply never lost to Buffalo, and that it appeared the AFC East opened up for the Bills and Josh Allen to dominate for the next decade … only for New England to apparently strike gold at quarterback again in rookie Mac Jones, who is going to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (which Brady never did) barring a late-season faceplant.

The Patriots are 14-3 against the spread in their past 17 trips to Buffalo.

New England Patriots

New England is on an NFL-high six-game winning streak both straight up and against the spread following a 36-13 domination of a very good Tennessee Titans team on Sunday – the Patriots have won five of the six games by double digits. QB Mac Jones threw for a career-high 310 yards vs. Tennessee with two TDs and no picks. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels puts Jones in position to succeed with a short passing game that essentially serves as a glorified running game.

The defence has been spectacular in the winning streak. Cornerback JC Jackson is making a push for NFL Defensive Player of the Year as he had his seventh interception of the season Sunday, one off the league lead. Jackson is the first player since Richard Sherman (2012-13) to record at least seven interceptions in consecutive seasons. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five road games.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo has alternated wins and losses over its past seven and is off a 31-6 victory in New Orleans last Thursday. Josh Allen threw four TD passes but also two picks. Allen has seven interceptions in the past four games, so that’s a potential worry sign. It’s the first time in his career that Allen has thrown at least one pick in four straight games.

That win was very costly as All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White suffered a season-ending knee injury; that literally could be the difference in the Bills reaching the Super Bowl or not. White allowed a 50.8 completion percentage and 58.9 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks, both fourth best among defensive backs with 50-plus targets this season. White had not allowed a passing TD. Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five vs. the AFC East.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Patriots vs. Bills?