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Edgar Chaput
Patriots vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
At the time of this writing, the game is scheduled to go ahead. Buffalo is in a delicate situation, what with the unexpectedly dire end to Monday night’s contest in Cincinnati. Safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field in the first quarter and has spent the last 48 hours in hospital after suffering cardiac arrest. Everyone wishes Hamlin and his family well.
Damar Hamlin’s Charity Donation Page
Odds makers place Sean McDermott’s Bills as -7.5 favourites. The over-under is set at 42.5.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
What was once an easy matchup for New England has seen the script flipped. The Bills have displayed newfound dominance since 2020. Patriots fans like to bring up the peculiar Monday night win in 2021, but that was a blip compared to Buffalo’s tidal wave. The latter has claimed five of the last six meetings, the most cathartic being a year ago on Wild Card Weekend when the Bills eviscerated their rivals 47-17.
Bill Belichick can coach his players up, even though the results don’t always follow suit. One need look no further than the side’s pedestrian 7-8-1 record against the spread. A more pressing matter may be the fact that they’ve failed to deal with spreads in five of their past six tries, even though last week’s failure didn’t deter them from winning the game against Miami.
Some teams are safe bets on the money line despite being terribly risky ones against the spread. One wouldn’t instinctually guess that a squad sitting at 12-3 in the standings would be 7-8 ATS, but such is the predicament betters face when considering Buffalo. Case in point: despite not covering three of the past six spreads, Buffalo rides a six-game winning streak!
New England Patriots
One can argue New England benefitted from Miami’s misfortune in Week 17 (Tua Tagovailoa missed the game due to concussion symptoms). The point is they took care of business in the final and most important home game of the season, 23-21.
Probably the most encouraging sign was Mac Jones’s play behind center. A 20/33 day totalling 203 yards is nothing to write home about on paper, but a closer inspection of game footage revealed a quarterback who looked more comfortable than he had in weeks. When running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (5.3 yards per carry) and Damien Harris (32 yards) can provide a minimum of support, positive things follow. Don’t sleep on the defence. It’s top ten in points conceded per game, rushing yards allowed per game, and total yards per tilt.
Buffalo Bills
Obviously, this is a strange section to fill. Week 17’s contest with the Bengals is postponed with no specific date set. We know it won’t be this week, as per the NFL. One imagines what thoughts bubble in the minds of Damar Hamlin’s teammates and what feelings tug at their hearts. Bluntly, how do they approach Week 18? As of Wednesday morning, the organization announced that they are having their midweek walkthrough and practice, although the team shall not be available for the media.
If we limit this to strictly football, there is a number one AFC seed to catch after Kansas City’s victory over Denver last Sunday. QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs have had their way with New England’s secondary in recent years. That will have to continue. Allen has tossed frustrating red zone picks this season and the Patriots are not only desperate but possess a “bend but don’t break” type of defensive.
NE
BUF