Patriots vs. Bengals Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction
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Nik Kowalski
The Bengals aim to get back to normalcy, which is contending for Super Bowls rather than finishing last in the AFC North like a season ago. A healthy Joe Burrow might be the key that unlocks the Bengals path to being a contender again, but then receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s potential holdout is a big wrench in that plan.
New England’s likely headed to a new normalcy of losing more football games than winning. It’s the opposite of a two-decade-long dynasty that has since faded away with the departures of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. And while the future, 2024 third overall pick Drake Maye, won’t be starting at quarterback, Week 1 undoubtedly marks a new era in New England. Jerod Mayo is the club’s second head coach since 2000 and has some big shoes to fill with Belichick out.
Kickoff at Paycor Stadium is set for 1 p.m. EDT on Sunday with the Bengals over a touchdown favourite (-8 on the point spread) at home and the over-under at 40.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Although a new era appears to be dawning, New England certainly has Cincinnati’s number. Seven of the last nine Patriots–Bengals clashes have gone to New England, and they’ve also covered in six of these teams last eight meetings. Joe Burrow is just 1-0 against New England, a game where he threw the ball 52 times for 375 yards and three touchdowns.
Cincinnati’s 13-3 in their last 16 games on home field, and six of their nine wins last season came at home. The road wasn’t too much of an issue for the Patriots in 2023, as three of their four wins a season ago were in enemy territory.
The Patriots’ +30000 Super Bowl odds are the longest in the NFL (and no, crazier things haven’t happened so don’t even think about it — remember, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are gone).
New England Patriots
Jacoby Brissett is back on New England for the first time since his rookie season in 2016 and is the Week 1 starter — yay for Jacoby! But the silver lining is the Patriots went with the 31-year-old under centre because of the lack of protection/security for rookie Drake Maye. Second-round pick Ja’Lynn Polk is essentially WR1 by default, as DeMario Douglas and K.J. Osborn aren’t keeping d-coordinators up at night. Rhamondre Stevenson in the backfield might, but at least everyone knows he’s arguably New England’s only legitimate threat as it stands.
And how well this defence fare without Bill Belichick scheming up its structure? Cornerback Christian Gonzalez has all the makings of a star, and should be a part of a strong secondary featuring Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger. Unless it was Belichick pulling all the strings…
Cincinnati Bengals
The key for the Bengals is Joe Burrow is back and healthy. The 27-year-old is one of the best players in the NFL, but it’s unsure whether Cincinnati’s other superstar player will suit up Sunday as receiver Ja’Marr Chase is going through an unresolved contract negotiation. There’s reports Chase will holdout Sunday if he’s yet to sign a new deal, so make sure to seek confirmation on Chase’s status before delving into this game.
And maybe Chase is still unresolved because the Bengals were so dang busy in the off-season. Receiver Tee Higgins signed a franchise tag, Zack Moss is in as the starting running back, there’s two new safeties in Geno Stone and Vonn Bell, Sheldon Rankins is a member of the d-line, Trent Brown is the starting right tackle, and Mike Gesicki is in at tight end. All these moves made up for the losses of D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon… or so we’ll see.
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