Patriots NFL Odds Hold After Brady Deflategate Ruling

Believe it or not, NFL fans, we might not have to hear the term “Deflategate” regarding Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for much longer. On Wednesday, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York City basically put an end to this ridiculous saga over deflated footballs. The court rejected Brady’s request for a en banc re-hearing regarding the NFL’s reinstated four-game suspension. Brady could still appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, but even if so it’s considered nearly a zero percent chance that the court would hear it. Despite the suspension, the Patriots remain +700 favourites to win Super Bowl LI.

UPDATE: The Patriots Super Bowl LI odds have shifted from +700 to +600.

It’s Jimmy Garoppolo’s Team For First Month

Brady actually prepared for this eventuality from a salary standpoint. He had recently renegotiated his salary from $9 million to $1 million for 2016, making up the rest in a bonus. That move saved him around $2 million, which would have been his four game checks during the suspension on the $9 million salary. Now he will only lose about $250,000.
So what does this mean for New England? Jimmy Garoppolo, who has never started an NFL game and has attempted 31 total regular-season passes in garbage time since being a second-round pick out of Eastern Illinois (same school that produced Cowboys QB Tony Romo), will be under center for the first month.

Brady will miss games Week 1 at Arizona, Week 2 vs. Miami, Week 3 on a Thursday vs. Houston and Week 4 vs. Buffalo. He would return Week 5 at Cleveland. The good news for the Patriots is they will only likely be underdogs on NFL odds against the Cardinals, who reached last season’s NFC Championship Game. Those last three games are at home, where the Patriots are an NFL best 101-19 since 2001. In addition, the Patriots have won 72.7 percent of games in September over the last 10 years, also best in the league.

Of course, the vast majority of those wins were with Brady playing. He hasn’t missed a game since suffering a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 season. That was the last time the Patriots failed to both win the AFC East Division and make the playoffs.

AFC East Still New England’s To Lose

New England remains the -213 favourite to win the division again. The other three teams all have flaws. The Jets might be starting Geno Smith at quarterback if they don’t re-sign 2015 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins have no true No. 1 running back after losing Lamar Miller in free agency to Houston. The Bills have the longest playoff drought in the NFL for a reason.

The Patriots have an unchanged wins total of 10.5 in NFL betting, with the over a -175 favourite. If they are able to go 3-1 without Brady, it’s seems likely they would top that. The Patriots have been .500 or better after the first four games of the season each year since 2002.

A loss in Arizona, a potential Super Bowl preview, is acceptable. Meanwhile, the Patriots have owned the Bills for several years. New England won in Houston 27-6 last season behind 226 yards passing and two scores from Brady. And the Dolphins haven’t won at the Patriots since 2008.

New England still has the NFL’s best coach in Bill Belichick, a fine defense and the incomparable Rob Gronkowski at tight end for those first four weeks. And maybe Brady might have gotten hurt in one of those games. He would stand a better chance of staying healthy for 12 regular-season games than 16. The one worry for the Patriots is if Garoppolo was injured in those first four games as the current third-stringer is third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett.