Panthers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 14 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Dec 02, 2019

christian mccaffrey, panthers, 2019

Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been productive as a runner of late. He’s averaging just 59.3 rushing yards per game over his last three, which isn’t good enough.

Carolina
5-11
AT
December 08, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
7-9
Pointspread +3.5 -108
Moneyline +158
Over / Under o +48

43%

Betting Action

57%

Pointspread -3.5 -112
Moneyline -190
Over / Under u +48

43%

Betting Action

57%

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Carolina Panthers. Close losses to the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints – two of the best teams in the NFC – were explainable. A loss at home to the two-win Washington Redskins was not.

Coming off that new low, the Panthers are on the road in Atlanta facing a Falcons team that blew them out 29-3 just three weeks ago. Originally, it was generally thought that the Panthers were a quarterback away from being a playoff team. Now it looks like they have much bigger problems than just that.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Panthers have failed to cover three of their last four games overall. However, they’ve played five games this season where the spread closed from +3 to -3, and they’ve covered four of those games. The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in that scenario this season.

Overall, Atlanta has been favored in just three games this season as they’ve lost all three games outright. They’re 0-3 ATS this season and 3-11 in their last 14 against teams with a losing record. They’ve dominated this series at home, though, winning 18 of the last 24 meetings while covering the spread in 16 of those contests.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers enter Week 14 having lost four straight and five of six. For a second straight season, they started well and have faded. Last year, they were 6-2 before finishing 1-7. This year, they were 4-2 but now find themselves at 5-7.

Kyle Allen simply hasn’t been the answer at quarterback as the initial spark he provided has proved to be fleeting. He had seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his first four games, which were all wins. He has just eight touchdowns and 10 picks in his last six games as the team has dropped five of six. Delving deeper past the basic stats, Allen’s QBR is 38.3, which ranks 30th in the NFL. That’s below replacement level and it’s really hurting the team. He’s been wildly inconsistent, as evidenced by his performance last Sunday. He completed his first six passes and led the team to touchdowns on their first two drives. The Panthers would go on to get outscored 29-7 the rest of the way as Allen went 21-of-41 on his remaining passes.

While he’s not getting much (negative) attention, it’s worth noting that Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been productive as a runner of late. Opposing defense have figured out that he’s the key to this team’s success. He’s averaging just 59.3 rushing yards per game over his last three, which isn’t good enough.

On defense, the Panthers run unit has been obliterated these last few weeks. They’re allowing 145.8 rushing yards per game during the team’s four-game losing streak and if they let Atlanta loose in this regard, the Panthers will lose again.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons had a brief spark a month ago when they beat the New Orleans Saints and Panthers in back-to-back weeks, but they’ve reverted back to being an awful team ever since. Their defense allowed just 12 points in those two wins; they’ve allowed 61 points in the team’s last two losses.

The Falcons have been beaten up by injuries all year but could be getting some bodies back here. Julio Jones is “trending upwards”, according to the staff, after missing last week’s game. Guard Chris Lindstrom is back off of injured reserve while tight end Austin Hooper and punter Matt Bosher should be back.

The key to this game will be the Falcons ability (or inability) to run the ball. They’ve collected just 146 rushing yards total over their last two games, averaging a paltry 3.2 yards-per-carry. If they can exploit the Panthers run defense in this spot, they might have a shot.

Who Will Win Panthers vs. Falcons?

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