Panthers vs. Falcons Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jan 03, 2025

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

The Atlanta Falcons still have a shot at the playoffs as they prepare to face the Carolina Panthers to close out the regular season.

Carolina
5-12
AT
January 05, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta
8-9
Pointspread +8 -110
Moneyline +310
Over / Under o +49
Pointspread -8 -110
Moneyline -400
Over / Under u +49

The Falcons’ playoff hopes took a hit with last week’s 30-24 overtime loss in Washington, so this is a must-win game in Week 18. The Panthers aren’t playing for anything as last week’s 48-14 blowout loss in Tampa Bay has all but assured they will finish last in the NFC South.

Atlanta is an 8.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

While Carolina is already guaranteed to miss the playoffs for a seventh straight season, the Falcons are still playing for a shot at the postseason, although they’ll need a little help. For Atlanta to clinch the NFC South, they not only need to beat the Panthers, they also need the Buccaneers to lose at home against the Saints. For context, the NFL’s playoff probability is giving the Falcons an 11 per cent chance to make the playoffs.

Luckily for Atlanta, the Panthers are one of the worst road teams in the NFL, going 1-6 in away dates this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are an even 4-4 both at home and on the road. Atlanta has also won seven of their last nine home games against Carolina.

Neither team has been a great cover option in 2024, but the Panthers have trended up in recent weeks. Carolina is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, while the Falcons have covered just once in their last seven.

These teams trend in opposite directions when it comes to totals betting. The Panthers have hit the Over 12 times and Atlanta has played the Under 10 times.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers can play spoiler this week and despite technically having nothing to play for, I think they’ll hang around in this game. Quarterback Bryce Young has been trending upward, throwing for 202 yards and two TDs last week against Tampa Bay. After being benched earlier this season, Young has looked much better and has actually been one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league since Week 9. The stats back Young up as he’s thrown a TD pass in nine straight games and he’s avoided throwing an interception in five of his last seven games.

Atlanta Falcons

This is obviously a huge game for the Falcons and rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. as they are officially in win-or-go-home territory. However, I’m skeptical Penix is ready to drag Atlanta into the playoffs. He only has two career NFL starts under his belt, so it’s a lot to put on his shoulders. Penix has decent passing yardage with 425 total passing yards in those two starts, but he has just one passing TD and two interceptions. He’s not committing as many turnovers as Kirk Cousins was and I still think the Falcons do enough to win, but I think they get it done more by committee rather than because of Penix.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Panthers vs. Falcons?

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