NFL Week 9 Odds and Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread
Note that the NFL trade deadline is Nov. 5, so this is the last week of football prior to it – we’ve seen three big-name receivers dealt already. It is back to bye weeks as well but only two teams on it: Pittsburgh and San Francisco.
Houston Texans at New York Jets, Thursday
Any realistic shot the Jets had at the playoffs vanished on Sunday in their worst loss yet this season, 25-22 at New England. It was New York’s fifth straight defeat, tying the longest such skid in the career of Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers. He has now gone 30 straight games without a 300-yard game. The Texans already were without one injured Pro Bowl-calibre receiver on Sunday in Nico Collins (on injured reserve) and saw another leave the 23-20 win over Indianapolis in Stefon Diggs. He suffered a non-contact knee injury, and it’s going to be tough to play on a quick turnaround.
Pick ATS: New York
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
The Cowboys came out of their bye week on Sunday and their defence was no better in a 30-24 loss in San Francisco as two Pro Bowlers, pass-rusher Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland, were not able to make it back from injury as hoped. Bland hasn’t played all season and may have suffered a setback. Dallas is last in rushing offence and 31st in rush defence, and you can’t win in the NFL that way. Atlanta took over sole possession of first in the NFC South with Sunday’s 31-26 win in Tampa behind four Kirk Cousins TD passes. Atlanta’s 5-3 start is the team’s best since 2016, which is the last time it won the South.
Pick ATS: Atlanta
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The Bills obviously can’t clinch the AFC East yet, but they would put a true hammerlock on the division by sweeping the Dolphins after winning 31-10 in South Florida in Week 2 as Buffalo QB Josh Allen continued his career domination of Miami. That was also the game where Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa left with a concussion. He returned on Sunday, but the Dolphins lost at home on a walk-off field goal to Arizona. Buffalo was very impressive in its third straight win, 31-10 in Seattle. The Bills are the first NFL teams since the 2021 Packers with at least a four-game division lead through Week 8.
Pick ATS: Buffalo
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders lost their fourth game in a row on Sunday, 27-20 to Kansas City, and those were the most points they scored during the streak. Just a bad offensive team that managed only 228 yards against the Chiefs. That’s what happens when you don’t have a quarterback. On the bright side Sunday, the Raiders snapped a streak of three straight games with a minus-3 turnover margin. Cincinnati played without excellent WR Tee Higgins in a bit of a surprise on Sunday and had a two-game winning streak snapped in a 37-17 home loss to the Eagles. Win that, and Cincy is 4-4 and has a playoff pulse. Not at 3-5. The Bengals managed only 17 points Sunday despite going 10-for-13 on third down.
Pick ATS: Cincinnati (alternate line of -7)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
It’s usually a bad thing when a team’s starting QB suffers a season-ending injury, but it might have been the best thing for the Browns to lose Deshaun Watson to such in Week 7. Jameis Winston started Sunday and led a 29-24 home upset of Baltimore as an 8-point underdog. The former No. 1 overall pick became only the fourth Cleveland QB since 1990 with at least 300 passing yards and three TDs along with no picks in a win. The Browns did see a few key defenders leave injured. The Chargers easily handled the injury-ravaged Saints on Sunday, 26-8. The Bolts lead the NFL in scoring defence (13.0 PPG) and have allowed fewer than 21 points in each game.
Pick ATS: Cleveland
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
This might be the most brutal offensive game in the NFL this year and neither team might have their young starting quarterback. The Patriots stunned the visiting Jets on Sunday on a last-second 1-yard TD run on fourth-and-goal despite losing rookie QB Drake Maye early on to a concussion. Most players don’t make it back the next week from a concussion these days. The Titans’ Will Levis missed his second straight game with a shoulder injury and Tennessee was destroyed 52-14 in Detroit. So we might be looking at journeymen Jacoby Brissett vs. Mason Rudolph under centre.
Pick ATS: Tennessee (alternate line of -2.5)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Short week for New York after losing a third straight game Monday, 26-18 at Pittsburgh. The Giants already were a laughingstock but then attempted one of the worst 2-point tries in history, and it failed miserably. One offensive bright spot this year, rookie tailback Tyrone Tracy, left with a possible concussion. Washington star rookie QB Jayden Daniels was in question for Sunday’s game against Chicago until a few hours before kickoff. Not only did he play, but Daniels threw a 52-yard game-winning Hail Mary as time expired in the 18-15 victory. It was the second-longest game-winning TD pass by a rookie as time expired in NFL history. The Commanders go for the season sweep as the beat the visiting Giants 21-18 in Week 2 despite Washington not scoring a touchdown. Austin Seibert’s team-record seventh field goal from 30 yards out won it at the gun. New York lost its kicker to injury on the opening kickoff, and that proved hugely important.
Pick ATS: New York
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Two NFC South franchises that are in complete disarray. New Orleans got No. 1 WR Chris Olave back Sunday but was without QB Derek Carr for a third straight game and lost 26-8 at the Chargers, the team’s sixth straight defeat. The Saints are the first team in NFL history to lose six straight games after winning each of its first two games by at least 20 points each. Carolina went back to former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at QB on Sunday with veteran Andy Dalton dealing with a minor injury. Young threw for 224 yards, two scores and two picks in a 28-14 loss in Denver. No word on who starts this week, but Dalton is not the long-term answer and Young still might be. The Saints try for the season sweep as they rolled 47-10 at home over the Panthers in Week 1. New Orleans scored on its first nine possessions. Young was 13 of 30 passing for 161 yards and intercepted twice.
Pick ATS: Carolina (alternate line of +7.5)
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix looks better each week and Denver won for the fifth time in six games Sunday, 28-14 over Carolina as Nix had three TD passes and rushed for a score. He joined Josh Allen as the only quarterbacks in the league this year with multiple games of at least two passing TDs and one rushing score. Denver’s 5-3 start is the franchise’s best since 2016, the last time it finished with a winning record. The Ravens had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 29-24 loss in Cleveland. Baltimore’s leaky defence was without star cornerback Marlon Humphrey and it showed. He’s week-to-week. The Ravens are now 0-2 outright this year when at 7.5-point favourites.
Pick ATS: Denver
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville’s coach is Doug Pederson, who led the Eagles to their only Super Bowl title as their head coach following the 2017 season. This was to be the primetime game but was flexed out because the Jaguars are one of the league’s worst teams. They returned from two games in London and lost 30-27 at home on Sunday to Green Bay. The Jags had several players leave injured, including their top three wideouts. One, Christian Kirk, is done for the year. The Eagles are 3-0 out of the bye after easily winning Sunday in Cincinnati but still remain the only team yet to score in the first quarter this season.
Pick ATS: Philadelphia (alternate line of -7)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
Matchup of former No. 1 overall picks and Heisman Trophy-winning QBs in Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Arizona’s Kyler Murray. The Bears suffered one of the most gut-wrenching losses in franchise history on Sunday, 18-15 in Washington on a 52-yard Hail Mary TD by the Commanders as time expired. It was Chicago’s 13th straight game allowing 21 points or fewer, but its three-game winning streak was snapped. The Cardinals were 28-27 upset winners in Miami despite only leading at the end. It was Arizona’s second win this season when trailing by two scores in the fourth quarter. The rest of the NFL has three such wins.
Pick ATS: Chicago
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Huge game in the NFC North, but then they all will be the rest of the way. These teams meet again on Thursday night in Week 14. The Lions blew out the Titans on Sunday, 52-14, to take sole first place in the North thanks to Minnesota’s loss in Week 8. Almost impossibly, Detroit has more touchdowns (25) than it has team incompletions (20) in the past five games. The franchise has scored at least 30 points in four straight games for the first time since 1997. Green Bay blew a late lead but won in Jacksonville, 30-27 on Sunday on a walk-off short field goal despite QB Jordan Love leaving earlier with a groin injury. He’s being called day-to-day, but the Pack have their bye in Week 10 and they might play it cautious.
Pick ATS: Green Bay
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
First meeting of the season between NFC West rivals with the Rams sweeping in 2023. The Rams won their second straight game on Thursday in Week 8, a 30-20 upset of Minnesota. LA’s two star wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, both returned from long injury absences and had a combined 12 catches for 157 yards and a TD. Seattle lost for the fourth time in five games Sunday, 31-10 at home to Buffalo and played without star wideout DK Metcalf, who is week to week.
Pick ATS: Los Angeles
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
This looked like a rather blah matchup in the preseason but has been flexed into the Sunday night game. Any shot the Colts had to make the AFC South a race probably ended Sunday in a 23-20 loss in Houston as the first-place Texans completed the season sweep. Indy running back Jonathan Taylor returned after missing a few games injured and rushed for 105 yards and a TD, but QB Anthony Richardson completed just 10 of 32 passes with a pick and lost fumble. He might need to return to the bench to learn. Minnesota was the NFC’s last unbeaten, but lost its second straight game on Thursday in Week 8 by a score of 30-20 at the Rams. The Vikes have been without linebacker and leading tackler Blake Coleman in both and it has showed. He might return this week.
Pick ATS: Minnesota
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday
The only Super Bowl the Chiefs have lost in the Patrick Mahomes era was following the 2020 season against Tom Brady and the Bucs in Tampa. The Chiefs remain the NFL’s only unbeaten this year with a pretty workmanlike 27-20 win in Las Vegas on Sunday. Kansas City has won 13 straight including playoffs, tying the longest win streak in team history. It also has held opponents to fewer than 28 points in 36 consecutive games. The Bucs played without their two Pro Bowl receivers on Sunday in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and lost to Atlanta to fall out of first in the NFC South. Evans will not be back this week and Godwin is out for the season.
Pick ATS: Kansas City