NFL Week 5 Odds Report: Mac Jones’ job could be on the line for Patriots

One important note to remember around the NFL in Week 5 is that all guys who landed on the PUP list in training camp would be eligible to play this week if healthy. Some like Colts running back Jonathan Taylor should play while others such as Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will not. Let’s break down three Week 5 games that have seen odds shifts and why.

Texans at Falcons

-3 to -1.5

Not every game involves a major injury for a line to swing but simply people perhaps finally catching up on what happened the previous weekend. Houston won three games last year and that earned it the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Instead of paying a big price to move up to No. 1 with Chicago, the Texans stayed put and the Bears traded the No. 1 to Carolina.

The Panthers took QB and former Heisman winner Bryce Young from Alabama, and the Texans grabbed CJ Stroud out of Ohio State at No. 2. Major win for Houston so far as Stroud is the second quarterback in NFL history with no interceptions in each of his first four career starts and his 1,212 passing yards are second-most through a rookie quarterback’s first four games. Stroud has been so good he has surpassed Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson as the OROY favourite even though Robinson has been excellent as well.

The Texans have won back-to-back game by at least 20 points and against good clubs in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. The Falcons did have to travel back from London last Sunday, opting not to take their bye week. Houston is taking a sizeable ATS lean.

Ravens at Steelers

+2 to +4.5

This move is largely quarterback driven as Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett went down with what looked like a possible serious knee injury in last Sunday’s shockingly brutal 30-6 loss in Houston. The early worries were that it was season-ending and then it was revealed to be a bone bruise and that Pickett would only miss “some” time. He must be a quick healer as Pickett is set to play Sunday barring a setback – so this number might go back down, although certainly early money flowed on Baltimore both because bettors perhaps expected Mitch Trubisky this week but also because the Steelers have hugely struggled offensively with Pickett. The team’s 48 points are its fewest through four game since 1991, and Pittsburgh is coming off its largest loss vs. a team with losing record since 1993.

Due to injury, Ravens star QB Lamar Jackson will play his first game against the Steelers in nearly two full years. He has started only three of eight games in the series since 2019. Six straight meetings have been decided by five or fewer points and Pittsburgh has won five.

Saints at Patriots

-1.5 to +1

Could this be Bill Belichick’s final season as coach of the Patriots? We are starting to see retirement props pop up as this team is going nowhere fast and has been stuck in neutral since Tom Brady left. Last Sunday’s 38-3 loss in Dallas was the worst ever for Belichick. QB Mac Jones was horrific as he committed three turnovers — two of which were returned for touchdowns — before being benched. Jones will start, but the first pick might mean we see Bailey Zappe.

Fading Jones isn’t the big reason why this likely moved, though as two of the Pats’ best defensive players, pass-rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez, suffered serious injuries against Dallas. New England already was gutted in the secondary by other injuries and Gonzalez was a Defensive Rookie of the Year contender. Judon is one of the best at getting after the QB in the NFL with a combined 28 sacks the past two seasons and four this year. Belichick is looking for career win No. 300 (including playoffs). Only Don Shula and George Halas are in that club.