NFL Week 18 Player Props and Predictions: Josh Allen has torched Miami throughout his career

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jan 03, 2024

It's time for the star players to step up in Week 18 as playoff spots and division crowns are on the line.

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: Najee Harris to the rescue

The Steelers enter Week 18 as favourites over the Ravens for two reasons: First, Baltimore isn’t playing for anything. They’ve already clinched the AFC’s top seed and Lamar Jackson will win his second career MVP, so they’ll rest their starters and play the B squad. More importantly, however, is Pittsburgh is still fighting for their playoff lives and they need to win to stay alive.

With a banged up Kenny Pickett backing up third-string QB Mason Rudolph, you can expect Najee Harris to get the ball this week. In the two games Rudolph has started in Week 16 and Week 17, Harris has rushed for 200 yards and three TDs on 46 carries. Last week against Seattle, Harris put up single-game season-highs in carries (27), rushing yards (122) and rushing TDs (two). Expect more of the same in Week 18.

NFL Week 18 Prediction: Take the Over on Najee Harris carries and rushing yards

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Win-or-go-home for Stroud and the Texans

C.J. Stroud’s return from injury in Houston’s rout of the Titans last week cemented him as a lock for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud, who missed the previous two games with a concussion, threw for 213 yards and a touchdown last week. It was a solid, virtually mistake-free performance from the rookie QB.

The Texans need to win this week to make the playoffs, so we’re banking on Stroud having a big performance. Stroud has thrown for 3,844 passing yards with 21 TDs and five interceptions in 14 games. That’s an average of 274.6 passing yards per game. He’s eclipsed the 250-yard mark eight times this season and he’s thrown for multiple TDs seven times. Week 18 is when Stroud will cement himself as a clutch QB.

NFL Week 18 Prediction: C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 passing TDs + Over 250.5 passing yards (+170)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders: Dak-attack primed to feast

Week 18 is huge for the Cowboys. They’ve already locked up a playoff spot and they hold the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, but they need to beat Washington to guarantee they win the NFC East, so head coach Mike McCarthy can’t afford to rest his starters.

We like Dak Prescott to torch the Commanders this week. Remember, this is the same team Prescott went off for 331 passing yards and four TDs in Week 12. Washington has the worst ranked total defence in the NFL and the second-worst ranked passing defence. Prescott is fourth in total passing yards this season (4,237) and he leads the NFL with 32 TD passes.

NFL Week 18 Prediction: Hammer Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Allen fishing for the Fins

This is easily the game of the week as the winner will take the AFC East. There’s more incentive for Buffalo, however, as they could actually miss out on the playoffs if they lose. Josh Allen and the Bills smashed Miami 48-20 on the road in Week 4 and we see it happening again in a desperation game for Buffalo. Allen had his best game of the season against the Dolphins, throwing for 320 yards and four TDs.

Week 4 was not a fluke for Allen. In his career, Allen is 10-2 against Miami, including one playoff game. In 11 regular season starts against the Fins, Allen has averaged 3.27 TD passes per game, 273 passing yards per game and he has thrown just five total interceptions. Allen has thrown multiple TD passes in 12 straight games against Miami and his 34 total TDs thrown against the Dolphins since 2018 is the most by any quarterback against a single opponent in that span. So, what we’re saying is back Allen in Week 18.

NFL Week 18 Prediction: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs + Over 249.5 passing yards (+175)