NFL Week 16 Recap: What We Learned

A look, now, at the biggest NFL football betting storylines to emerge from Week 16:

Colts Pass on Perfection: With karma being what it is and their history with resting players in the final weeks, the Colts should be kicking themselves for the ridiculous decision to pull their starters on Sunday against the Jets.

Up 15-10 late in the third quarter, Indy head coach Jim Caldwell called off the dogs, er, uh, Colts and then watched the Jets rip off 19 straight points to win the game. The biggest move for Caldwell was taking out Peyton Manning and replacing him with rookie QB Curtis Painter, who had never taken a regular-season NFL snap. Indy came into this contest as a -5.5 home favourite, a reasonable number considering many figured Caldwell would pull this stunt eventually — just not at home, in front of the Indy faithful. What transipred was a SU and ATS loss, and a lot of egg on the face of the franchise. Yes, the prospect of injury is real and frightening, considering how vital Manning is to this team. But Peyton has gone his entire career without missing a game due to injury; did the Colts really think that he was going to suffer something catastrophic in the last quarter on Sunday?

Your updated AFC Wildcard scenarios:

– New York Jets control their own fate. If they win against Cincinnati this weekend, they’re in.
– Baltimore Ravens also control their own fate. If they win against Oakland this weekend, they’re in.

The rest are pretty convoluted. The longest of longshots is Miami — the Dolphins need to beat Pittsburgh then hope that the Jets, Ravens, Texans and Jaguars lose. So count them out. Don’t even bother trying to extrapolate all the tiebreakers needed to figure out the rest; just click here to check out what needs to happen for the Broncos, Jaguars, Texans and Steelers to make the postseason.

Shocking betting trends of the week:

The Packers have quietly gone about dominating against the spread recently. Green Bay is 6-0-1 ATS over the last seven, covering some big numbers in the process (-11 at Detroit, -13 vs. Seattle) — you can thank the newfound protection of QB Aaron Rodgers for the turnaround…Nobody seems to realize it, but the explosive offense of the 2007 New England Patriots is gone and it’s not coming back. The Pats have hit the under in 71% of their contests this season and are falling trap to what many remember as the greatest offense in NFL history. Realistically, the Pats are a good-to-great offense that stumbles far too often, like mustering 20 points against Carolina, 17 against Buffalo and 21 against Miami…Have oddsmakers been giving Chicago too much credit this year? The Bears have lost seven straight against the spread, and have done so in every conceivable fashion: Losing as a big home favourite (-9 against St. Louis, won 17-9), losing as a big road underdog (+10.5 in Baltimore, lost 31-7), losing as a narrow home dog (+3 against Philly, lost 24-20). It’s uncanny to see how far this team has fallen in what was supposed to be a big year with Jay Cutler under center.