NFL Week 1 Player Props and Predictions: Patrick Mahomes lives for Week 1

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season kicks off Thursday, September 7 with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. Sunday offers a slate of 14 games before Aaron Rodgers makes his official New York Jets debut against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

Player props are some of the most popular betting options when it comes to the NFL. Here’s a look at some of the key player props to keep in mind for Week 1.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of NFL games odds, NFL player props and NFL futures betting.

Week 1 Super Bowl odds

Patrick Mahomes is a Week 1 assassin

Everyone knows Patrick Mahomes is a big-game player. At 27-years-old, Mahomes has already won two Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVP awards and two NFL MVP awards.

The Chiefs’ franchise quarterback doesn’t just save it for the biggest stage, however, as he has torched Week 1 opponents his whole career. Mahomes has a 5-0 Week 1 record as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. The Chiefs have averaged 37.8 points per game in that stretch, scoring 38, 40, 34, 33 and 44 points.

Mahomes is the only quarterback in NFL history to throw at least three touchdown passes in five straight season openers. He has thrown 18 total Week 1 TD passes, including a career-high five last year against Arizona, and he has never thrown an interception in a season opener.

Expect more of the same in the 2023 season opener as Mahomes is up against a Detroit Lions team that allowed 26 touchdown passes last year, tied for the eighth-worst mark in the NFL.

NFL Week 1 Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 touchdown passes (+105)

Aaron Rodgers who? A.J. Dillon will love Love

With no Aaron Rodgers under centre, the Green Bay Packers offence will look very different this year. Jordan Love is an untested quarterback, which means Green Bay will likely focus on the run-game in the early part of the season while Love gets acclimated to the offence. That means there is a big opportunity for A.J. Dillon to boost his stats.

Dillon finished last season with seven rushing touchdowns, but six of those came in the final six games as Green Bay increasingly relied on Dillon over Aaron Jones. For comparison, Jones had just three rushing TDs in his final 10 games of the season.

The Packers’ Week 1 opponent is the Chicago Bears, a team that finished dead last in the NFL standings last year and they are not projected to be much better in 2023. With Chicago giving up a league-worst 31 rushing TDs last season, Dillon has a great opportunity to start this year as strong as he finished last year.

NFL Week 1 Prediction: A.J. Dillon anytime touchdown scorer

Speaking of Aaron Rodgers…

Aaron Rodgers is being thrown directly in the fire in New York, as his Jets debut will come against division rival Buffalo. Rodgers faced Buffalo one time last year as a member of the Packers. He completed 19 of 30 pass attempts for 203 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

After winning back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers’ passing game took a hit last year after Green Bay traded away Davante Adams. Now in New York, Rodgers has better weapons, including last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson.

So, will Rodgers click with the Jets offence and look closer to his MVP form in 2023? Ultimately, yes, but it’s tough to imagine things going perfectly in Week 1. Rodgers is still building chemistry with a completely new offence and he’ll be facing a Super Bowl favourite team. Don’t expect 300+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs for Rodgers in Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Prediction: Aaron Rodgers Under 2.5 touchdown passes