NFL Week 1 Odds Report: Big Shift in Cardinals vs. Commanders Spread

Do note that Thursday night games will not be included in this piece or it would have been easy to explain why the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs plummeted from as high as -7 to -4 against the visiting Detroit Lions in the 2023 Kickoff Game. It was because KC was sans All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who was injured Tuesday, and to a lesser extent also without All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones (holding out). While the KC defence played well on Thursday, the offence badly missed Kelce in 21-20 upset loss. Home teams have now lost the Kickoff Game in back-to-back seasons after a 16-3 record in the first 19 games since it was introduced in 2002.

Also be aware that Week 1 line moves are a bit tricky because those lines have been up for months, while going forward most lookahead lines are released on Wednesdays.

Significant Shift in Cardinals vs. Commanders Spread (Arizona +5 to +7; total 41 to 38)

There’s no crying in baseball, so it goes, but there apparently is tanking in football. Arizona truly appears to actively be trying to lose in 2023 under a new front office and coaching staff. Star quarterback Kyler Murray is out at least the first four weeks as he recovers from a torn ACL and he might be replaced in the 2024 draft regardless.

Veteran Colt McCoy, a serviceable player, spent all offseason practicing as the No. 1 QB but was released in a shocking move not long ago. Late last month, the Cards acquired journeyman Joshua Dobbs from Cleveland, and he’s the Week 1 starting QB even though he didn’t play a snap with his new club in the preseason.

The Cards also could be without their No. 1 wideout in Marquise Brown and top tight end in Zach Ertz. This probably won’t get to Washington -7.5 simply because that’s such a magic number at the books. The total is already the lowest in Week 1 but might see 37.5.

Jaguars vs. Colts Line on the Rise (Jacksonville -3.5 to -5)

Jacksonville is very much on the rise after winning the AFC South last year, beating the Chargers in the wild card round and pushing the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs in the divisional round. And the Jags got QB Trevor Lawrence a new toy in former Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley. I’m not saying Jacksonville will reach the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, but it might.

Indianapolis is in full-on rebuild after taking mega-raw but mega-athletic quarterback Anthony Richardson at No. 4 overall in this year’s draft and will throw him into the fire immediately despite having one of the better backups in the league in Gardner Minshew (a former Jaguar). In addition, former NFL rushing champion and Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Taylor will miss the first four games on the PUP list. Richardson’s inexperience and Taylor’s absence are why the line has changed and some 5.5s are popping up.

Rams vs. Seahawks Odds Bouncing Back-and-Forth (Rams +5 currently)

Few Week 1 games have seen the spread bounce around more than this NFC West matchup. Seattle was as low a 4-point favourite but got as high as -5.5 when Rams star receiver Cooper Kupp was ruled out with an injury. He won the NFL’s receiving Triple Crown in 2021, was named Offensive Player of the Year and even Super Bowl MVP. So, yeah, he’s important to Matthew Stafford & Co. The Rams’ receiving group without him is likely the NFL’s worst.

This has dropped back down a bit because Seattle No. 1 running back Kenneth Walker II is now in some question with a groin injury. He finished second to Jets receiver Garrett Wilson in voting for Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022 after rushing for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns. If Walker is cleared, expect this back to -5.5.