When you start mixing public perception and pointspreads, things can change suddenly in the world of NFL betting.
Case in point: the Denver Broncos. Denver is having one of the most dominant seasons we’ve seen in a while thanks in large part to Peyton Manning’s resurgence. The Broncos went into the season as a +515 Super Bowl favorite and that number didn’t move much even after they dropped a road game at Indianapolis in Week 7. It did dip a bit after another loss at New England, when everyone started wondering if Denver could handle cold-weather football, but Denver remained at the top of the Super Bowl odds board – that is until now.
Heading into Week 14, the new favorite is the Seattle Seahawks at +267, just barely ahead of the Broncos (+268). The strange part of the move is that Denver just handled the Kansas City Chiefs in what was essentially the AFC West title game and still dipped below Seattle.
Still, when you get this far into the season, you’re going to see these numbers move around a little more. Bettors are already looking ahead to the playoffs and more action means more line moves. Are the Seahawks a better Super Bowl bet than the Broncos? Who knows.
But if you’re a Broncos bettor and like their chances moving forward, you might not get a better number than what you see right now. As the playoffs near, more and more action will come in on Denver, one of, if not the most popular team in the NFL. On the flipside, if you like Seattle, now isn’t the time to get down on futures.
To me, the two best bets on the board are New England at +682 and the New Orleans Saints at +1000. Those are lines you’d better jump on now, because they’ll both be slashed soon.
There’s not much I like about this game. The Jets have lost three straight, scoring just 20 points during that span. Oakland is moving the chains better but has lost four of its last five. I’m not convinced the Raiders’ offence will step up against a tough Jets defence, especially if the weather comes into play. As for the Jets, they’re still starting Geno Smith.
If you’re betting the Bills on the road at this point in the season, you haven’t been doing your homework. Buffalo has covered just once as visitors and has dropped four of its last five overall. The Bucs ran into a red-hot Panthers team last week and took a beating, but they’re finishing strong after a rocky start. Stick with the home team here.
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m far from the biggest Ravens supporter in the world, but if you’re favoring them by less than a touchdown against the Vikings, I’m in. Minnesota is a one-dimensional club in that if Adrian Peterson doesn’t do everything, this team has no chance to move the chains consistently. The Ravens will slow him down and get a big win to stay in the playoff hunt.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s picks: 1-2