NFL MVP Odds: Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow top the list of value MVP picks
Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday, Sept. 7 in Kansas City with reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes leading the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs against the visiting Detroit Lions.
Mahomes is entering the season as a +553 favourite to repeat as NFL MVP, but if you’re looking for a value pick at a better price, you might want to consider Sports Interaction’s list of the top five NFL MVP value plays.
You can watch David Bastl’s top five NFL MVP value plays breakdown on Sports Interaction’s YouTube channel or by clicking the link below. Don’t forget to visit Sports Interaction for complete NFL game odds, props and futures betting.
Top 5 NFL MVP Value Plays
No. 5 Jared Goff
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff offers tremendous MVP value at +3,446. With Aaron Rodgers out of Green Bay, the NFC North division is wide open and the Lions are trending in the right direction.
Goff is fully in his prime at 28-years-old and he is coming off a 2022 season that saw him finish sixth in the NFL in both total passing yards (4,438) and passing touchdowns (29), while throwing just seven interceptions.
If Goff can improve on Detroit’s 9-8 record last season and lead the Lions to the postseason for the first time since 2016, he should be a leading MVP candidate.
No. 4 Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars pivot Trevor Lawrence had a breakthrough year in 2022 and he was arguably the biggest reason why the Jags won their first AFC South title since the division was formed in 2002.
Lawrence finished his sophomore season ranked ninth in total passing yards (4,113) and tied for eighth in passing touchdowns (25). He also rushed for 291 yards and five scores.
Lawrence, who is +1,430 to win MVP, is on a Jaguars teams that most critics expect to continue to trend upwards. Can the third-year QB cement himself as one of the faces of the NFL in 2023?
No. 3 Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers had a down-year by his standards in 2022, but with a new team and a chip on his shoulder, he should bounce back in 2023. Let’s also not forget, a “down-year” for Rodgers consisted of 3,695 passing yards (11th in NFL) and 26 passing touchdowns (seventh).
With a new team and plenty of offensive weapons at his disposal, +1,484 to win MVP is great value for a player that is one year removed from winning back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021. Rodgers has a legit shot at matching Peyton Manning’s all-time record by winning a fifth career MVP award in 2023.
No. 2 Joe Burrow
It seems inevitable that Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow will win an MVP award at some point in his career, so why can’t that be in 2023? Burrow’s 4,475 passing yards was fifth-most in the NFL last year and his 35 touchdown passes was tied with Buffalo’s Josh Allen for second-most.
At +681 to win MVP in 2023, Burrow has the second-best odds behind Mahomes. The Bengals should cruise to the playoffs and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Burrow set new career-highs in passing yards and touchdowns. This is a great pick for MVP if you want a solid play that offers a little more value.
No. 1 Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts seems like another young star destined to win an MVP award at some point in his career. Hurts finished last year with 3,701 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns en route to leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance.
Hurts’ real value, however, comes as a dual threat. He is easily the best rushing quarterback in the league, finishing last season with 760 yards on the ground. Hurts also added 13 rushing touchdowns, tied with Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and the Chargers’ Austin Ekeler for second-most in the NFL.
At +1,037 to win MVP in 2023, Hurts seems like the perfect combination of a safer bet with a better value.