NFL Draft Odds & Predictions: Which Team Drafts Tua Tagovailoa?

Payton Matthews | Tue. Mar 24 2020, 08:03 am

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Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, a lefty, was to be the big prize in the 2020 NFL Draft. Bet on his overall draft position and which team calls his name.

The next (only?) big sporting event on the calendar is the NFL Draft, which runs from April 23-25. It’s considered a done deal that LSU quarterback Joe Burrow will go No. 1 overall, but what about his SEC counterpart Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama? We break down some NFL Draft odds on Tua.

Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft Odds

A handful of teams were supposed to “Tank for Tua” this past NFL regular season, especially the Miami Dolphins as they stripped down their roster to the bare bones via trades. Alas, the Fins outperformed expectations by winning five games.

Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, a lefty, was to be the big prize in the 2020 NFL Draft, and maybe he still will be a superstar as a professional. However, there are legitimate concerns about Tua’s ability to stay healthy.

2020 NFL Draft

Specials - When is Tua Tagovailoa Picked
  • 3rd Overall Pick +150
  • 5th Overall Pick +200
  • 2nd Overall Pick +370
  • Anyone other pick +600
  • 4th Overall Pick +800
  • 6th Overall Pick +800

The Hawaiian suffered a very serious hip injury (dislocated and fractured it) on Nov. 16, 2019, in a win at Mississippi State that ended his junior season and required major surgery. Tagovailoa also underwent procedures on each of his ankles while at Alabama and fractured a finger. If someone can’t stay healthy in college football, how realistic is to think he will when facing bigger, stronger and faster players at the NFL level?

The coronavirus also is at play here because NFL teams are not allowed to bring prospective draftees into their facilities for interviews, physicals and workouts for safety reasons. Obviously, clubs would like their own doctors to examine Tagovailoa. There are zero off-field concerns about him, though.

Those injuries combined with the sensational season by LSU quarterback Joe Burrow have knocked Tua out of the running to go first overall unless the Cincinnati Bengals are overwhelmed with a trade offer. They are surely going to stay put and select Burrow.

That Tua is picked No. 2 overall, currently held by the Washington Redskins, is +375 at Sports Interaction. The Redskins most likely are not taking Tua there because they took Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins at No. 15 overall last year. The Redskins badly need pass-rushing help and are expected to grab Ohio State defensive end Chase Young at No. 2 if they stay there. Quite possible, though, a team that wants Tua tries to trade up to that spot.

That Tagovailoa goes third overall is +150. The Detroit Lions are sitting there and wouldn’t appear to be in the market for a quarterback because they have Matthew Stafford. He was having a career season in 2019 before going down with a back injury but is fine now. Stafford is still relatively young at 32, and the Lions have much more glaring needs.

The New York Giants sit at No. 4 and Tua going in that spot is a longer shot at +800. The Giants took Duke quarterback Daniel Jones No. 6 overall in 2019 so they aren’t taking Tua. That said, they could be in the catbird’s seat in terms of trades as teams may want to jump ahead of the quarterback-needy Dolphins, who sit at No. 5. Tua going in that spot is a +200 second-favorite.

In addition, on the which team drafts Tua prop, Miami is the clear-cut -120 favorite. There’s little doubt he will be the choice if Miami stays at No. 5 and Tagovailoa is still there. The Dolphins have been looking for a franchise quarterback since Dan Marino retired. They do have three first-round picks (5, 18 and 26) and thus the capital to trade up if need be.

The Los Angeles Chargers, sitting at No. 6, are +300 second-favorites to land Tua, and they need a quarterback after saying goodbye to Philip Rivers in free agency this offseason. Washington is actually the third-favourite on this prop at +480. That Tua goes to Detroit is +1400.

There’s also an over/under draft spot prop for Tua at 4.5, with the under a slight -130 favourite.

NFL Draft Predictions

Tua goes No. 5 (+200) to Miami (-120).

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