NFL 2010 Preview: New England Patriots

The Patriots enter 2010 looking to bounce back from disappointment in last season’s playoffs. Al Dannity says their quest for the post-season will make for compelling theatre.

Off-season changes
The biggest change for the Patriots is the return of a seemingly healthy Wes Welker. So far in pre-season, where games count for little, Welker has looked in good shape. The return of Tom Brady’s favorite target is vital to New England, particularly as Randy Moss has lost some of his pace.

The Patriots focused squarely on building through the draft and cornerback Devin McCourty should see plenty of action in 2010. Brandon Spikes was drafted in the third, largely to help improve New England’s ability to stop the run. The two most important additions for NFL betting fans are tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The rookie duo will be the Patriots first two choices at tight end, with Alge Crumpler offering veteran support, and New England will need them to perform from week 1.

Mark your calendar
New England faces four crucial divisional games against the Jets, in weeks 2 and 13, and the Dolphins, in weeks 4 and 17, which should prove decisive in the AFC East race. The beefed up Jets will enter their games with New England as prohibitive favorites this year, a big change from recent history in the division, while the Dolphins have also made moves which should give Patriots fans reasons to worry.

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The Patriots have a tough schedule in 2010 outside of its division. Visits from Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Green Bay should all prove challenging for Bill Belichick’s team. The Patriots road schedule is more forgiving but New England’s assignments in San Diego and Pittsburgh will be tough.

The verdict
While there are some safe bets on the schedule, against Detroit, Cleveland, and twice against Buffalo, this is still going to be a tough year for the Patriots. The decision to eschew free agency in addressing rush defense could come back to haunt New England as the season wears on. I’m also far from enamored with the receiver and tight end situation, although Julian Edelman could prove a reliable passing option to take some of the weight off Welker and Moss.

The Patriots have talent but not enough to dominate every week. I expect a tight race to the end of the season. Look for New England to finish either 9-7 or 10-6 in 2010, on the fringes of playoff contention.