Lions vs. Vikings Point Spread: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to this point in the season, but they’ll have a great chance to pick up their second win of the year when they host the winless Detroit Lions Sunday afternoon. Minnesota dropped a 14-7 decision to the Browns last week, while Detroit fell 24-14 against the Bears.
The Vikings are heavy 9.5-point favourites to win on the NFL odds, with a total of 49.0.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
If that -9.5 number is scaring you off of Minnesota, consider the recent history between these teams. The Vikings have won seven straight games in this head-to-head series, with five of those contests being decided by more than 9.5 points. The numbers are starting to balance out, with about 56 per cent of early bettors taking Minnesota. A little more than 60 per cent of action is going with the Over. Both games between these teams last season went above the number.
Detroit has been awful for years and has lost eight straight games, dating back to last season. They’ve lost 13 of their last 14 games against NFC North opponents, including six straight losses against NFC teams in general. The Lions are 2-2 against the spread this season, but they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Detroit has split the Over/Under this season. The total has gone Under in seven of their last eight games in Minnesota.
Minnesota’s had a tough start to the year, but there’s reason to believe that could change this week. The Vikings have won four of their last five divisional games and 12 of their last 16 games played in October. They’re 2-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered in six of their last seven games against Detroit. The total has gone Over in five of Minnesota’s last seven games, including twice this season.
Detroit Lions
Detroit remains winless in four games under coach Dan Campbell and their losing streak climbed to eight, last week. They now join Jacksonville as the only winless teams in the league. Off-season addition Jared Goff has looked good, but not great in Detroit. Goff was 24-for-38 last week, finishing with 299 passing yards and two touchdowns.
It actually hasn’t been as bad for the Lions as it appears. They’ve had a chance to win every game this year and it took an NFL-record 66-yard field goal for Baltimore to beat them in Week 3. Converting in the red-zone has been one of the bigger issues. The Lions made it past Chicago’s 10-yard line on their first three possessions last week, but they turned the ball over each time and left with no points.
Campbell has been incredibly aggressive this season, going for it on fourth-down a league-high 10 times, but only converting on three of those attempts. That aggression could be why the injuries are piling up. Outside linebacker Romeo Okwara left the first half against Chicago with a season-ending Achilles injury and will be a significant loss. Pro Bowl centre Frank Ragnow also left in the first half against the Bears. He’ll likely miss the Minnesota game with a toe injury.
Minnesota Vikings
The NFL schedule-makers didn’t do the Vikings any favours in the early part of their season. Minnesota’s three losses have come against teams with a combined 10-2 record. This week is a big opportunity for the Vikings to get back in the win column. Kirk Cousins was 20-for-38 last week, finishing with 203 passing yards, a touchdown and his first interception of the season.
The run-game has been hurting Minnesota this year. Star running back Dalvin Cook returned from an ankle injury last week, but was eased back into the lineup. Cook finished with 34 yards on nine carries, while backup Alexander Mattison picked up 20 yards on 10 carries. The Vikings defence gave up nearly 200 rushing yards and is allowing opponents to average almost five yards per carry on the year.
There was some good news on the injury front this week. Linebacker Anthony Barr was listed as a full participant at practice, after missing all four games this year with a knee injury. Barr hasn’t played since suffering a torn pectoral muscle in Week 2, last year. There’s been no word on his status for Sunday, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
DET
MIN