Lions vs. Dolphins Week 9 Betting Odds, Prediction and Picks: Detroit Takes Win Streak to Miami
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Kevin Tompkins
In Week 9 we get an NFC vs. AFC showdown as the 5-2 Detroit Lions, winners of three straight after knocking off the previously unbeaten Minnesota Vikings 19-15, head to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the 1-6 Miami Dolphins.
After splitting their first four games, the Lions have found their footing with three straight wins. Detroit hung 45 points on the Cardinals in Arizona, edged the Packers 20-17 coming out of its bye, and then handed Minnesota its first loss of the season at Ford Field. The Lions are a pristine 4-0 at home but just 1-2 on the road, and this is their first road game since that Week 5 win in Arizona.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins opened the Jeff Hafley era 0-5 before finally breaking through with a 28-25 win over the Jets in Week 7. They couldn’t build on it, falling 24-19 at home to the New England Patriots last week, and Miami is now 0-3 at Hard Rock Stadium this season.
Say what you want about the Dolphins, but their last four games have been decided by a touchdown or less.
Lions vs. Dolphins Kickoff, Weather, TV, Streaming Info
Kickoff is Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The game will air on CBS, with streaming available on Fox One and NFL+. In Canada, DAZN carries every NFL game through NFL Game Pass.
The weather forecast for Week 9’s game calls for sunny skies and no chance of rain, with temperatures in the mid-20s at kickoff.
NFL Betting Odds, Point Spread, Trends
The visiting Lions are 7.0-point road favourites with a -355 money line. The home Dolphins are placed at +280 on the money line, and the total sits at 50.5.
This season, Detroit has been one of the most explosive offences in football, averaging 29.0 points and 395.4 yards per game, and the over has hit in five of its seven contests.
Jahmyr Gibbs entered Week 8 averaging 103.3 rushing yards per game as one of the early front-runners for NFL Offensive Player of the Year, and Jared Goff hadn’t thrown an interception through six games before succumbing to the pressure of Minnesota’s blitz-happy defence and tossing a pick.
The surprise has been the defence, which held Green Bay to 17 points and Minnesota to 15 in back-to-back weeks. Still, the Lions have been a tough team to back as a favourite, going 1-3-1 against the spread when laying points entering last week.
As for the Dolphins, Malik Willis has given them some life with his legs, but the offence ranks near the bottom of the league at 16.7 points per game.
Willis entered last week with just four touchdown passes against four interceptions, and Miami’s defence has generated the fewest sacks in the NFL while allowing 25.9 points per game. That said, Willis has multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games, so perhaps he’s showing some signs of life as a passer.
With Detroit’s offence facing a defence that can’t get home, siding with the Lions on the road makes sense, though a touchdown is a lot to lay for a team that has struggled to cover as a favourite. The over is worth a look as well, given how often Lions games have cleared the number.
NFL Player Odds and Props
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 100.5 rushing yards
Gibbs has been the engine of this Lions offence, entering Week 8 averaging 103.3 rushing yards per game on one of the league’s heaviest workloads. Miami’s defence has struggled to get off the field all season, and if Detroit builds a lead, the Lions will lean on Gibbs to bleed the clock in the Florida heat. The one thing to monitor is the shoulder injury that kept him out of practice ahead of the Vikings game, but with the Lions very concentrated in the run game, Gibbs should have ample opportunity to get above the century mark against the Dolphins.
Malik Willis OVER 29.5 rushing yards
We went with this prop last week, and Willis tallied just two yards on the ground. That lack of output was an anomaly, and we’re going back to the well this week. He is the key to any Dolphins upset, and Willis’ legs are clearly his most dangerous weapon. Willis is at his best when he’s moving, and he ran for over 100 yards and two touchdowns across his two games heading into last week. Miami’s offence is built around designed runs, zone reads and scrambles, and that shouldn’t change against a Lions defence that has been aggressive in coverage. If the Dolphins fall behind, Willis will be forced to create on his own, which usually means more yards with his legs.
Detroit Lions
Goff has been efficient and careful with the ball, throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay and keeping the turnovers to a minimum. Amon-Ra St. Brown set a new career high in receiving yards in that game, and with Gibbs carrying the ground game and Jameson Williams stretching the field, this offence has a weapon at every level.
Sam LaPorta has been quieter of late, but he remains a reliable red zone option for Goff. Production for the Lions was muted against a tough Minnesota defence as Goff passed for just 176 yards, but Gibbs was the alpha here with 153 yards and a touchdown on the ground and Williams adding a touchdown on four grabs for 70 yards.
The bigger story over the last two weeks has been the defence. After giving up 17 touchdowns through the first four games, the Lions have tightened up considerably, holding two NFC North rivals to 32 combined points. Facing a Dolphins offence averaging just 16.7 points per game, Detroit’s defence has a chance to keep that momentum going.
Miami Dolphins
Running back Ollie Gordon II has been the most consistent piece of this offence, rushing for 339 yards and four touchdowns on 72 carries heading into last week, when he put up 69 yards as a running back that lacks any receiving profile. Still, the Dolphins will need him to keep Detroit’s offence on the sideline.
Willis found a connection with rookie Caleb Douglas in the win over the Jets, while Malik Washington and tight end Greg Dulcich gave Willis options underneath. The problem is consistency, as Miami has not been able to string together complete performances through the air. It’s to be expected for such a young team that’s trying to find an identity as well as players for the future who will be around long-term as they rebuild into a contender.
Defensively, Zach Sieler anchors the interior, but the Dolphins simply can’t pressure the quarterback, and that’s a dangerous combination against a passer like Goff. If Miami can’t make Detroit uncomfortable, its best hope is controlling the clock with Gordon and Willis and keeping this one close into the fourth quarter.
DET
MIA