Jaguars vs. Patriots Point Spread: AFC Conference Championships Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jan 15, 2018

leonard fournette

Conference championship Sunday in the NFL kicks off with the AFC title tilt with surprising Jacksonville visiting Super Bowl favourite New England. It’s the fifth all-time postseason meeting between the two and first since Jan. 12, 2008.

AT
January 21, 2018, 3:05 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +8 -110
Moneyline +240
Over / Under o +46

45%

Betting Action

55%

Pointspread -8 -110
Moneyline -300
Over / Under u +46

45%

Betting Action

55%

Apparently, the Jaguars didn’t get the memo that everyone was expecting to see a Steelers-Patriots rematch in the AFC Championship Game. Don’t think it’s a fluke that Jacksonville is here, either. The Jaguars have arguably the most talented roster in the NFL from 1-53, they just have a major question mark at the most important position in the sport: quarterback.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Jacksonville is especially loaded on defence as it has the potential 2017 NFL Defensive Player of the Year in Calais Campbell, who was probably the best free-agent signing of the last offseason as Campbell finished with 14.5 sacks. The Jags also have the best young cornerback in the league in Jalen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball, running back Leonard Fournette had a terrific rookie year with 1,040 yards rushing and nine touchdowns with 36 catches for 302 yards and another score receiving.

It’s the third time in franchise history the Jags are in the AFC title game; they lost it following the 1996 and 1999 seasons. This game is old hat for the Patriots as they are in it for the 14th time. Since Tom Brady became the starting QB in 2001, the only seasons the Pats didn’t make it were 2002, ’05 and ’08-’10. They are 6-1 in AFC title tilts at home.

These teams did meet in the 2017 preseason opener. New England is 10-1 all-time in the series in games that count. They last played Week 3 of the 2015 season in Foxborough, a 51-17 Patriots rout. Brady threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns, and LeGarrette Blount (now with Eagles) had three touchdown runs. It was the most points ever allowed by the Jaguars. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to New England and have never won there straight-up.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars opened this postseason with an ugly 10-3 home win over Buffalo in the Wild-Card round and were 7-point underdogs Sunday at Pittsburgh but won 45-42 – the most points ever scored in a playoff game in the Steel City and tied for the most ever allowed by the Steelers in a postseason game. The 87 combined points were the fourth-most in any playoff game and most after the Wild-Card round. Fournette rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns, becoming the youngest player in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 100 yards and three scores in a playoff game.

Embattled QB Blake Bortles avoided mistakes in throwing for 214 yards and a score. Jacksonville had the NFL’s No. 1 pass defence in the regular season but allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw five TD passes. He became the first QB in playoff history to lose a game where had had five TD throws.

New England Patriots

New England beat Tennessee – an AFC South club like the Jaguars — on Saturday, 35-14. Brady threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns as the Pats rolled up 438 yards of offence and didn’t turn it over or allow Brady to be sacked. It was Brady’s 10th career postseason game with at least three TD tosses, moving him past his boyhood idol Joe Montana for the most in NFL history. Brady also extended his own record for 300-yard passing games in the postseason with his 13th.

New England’s seven straight conference title games is a record as well. The only two times Brady has lost in a Super Bowl was to a Giants team coached by Tom Coughlin. He’s in his first season as the Jaguars’ executive vice president of football operations.

Jaguars vs. Patriots Prediction

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