The Patriots opened as 15.5-point favourites with a total of 42 points.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Jacksonville is playing out the string on another terrible season and would pick first in the 2022 NFL Draft for a second straight year by losing out. That seems pretty likely. New England will be in the playoffs but it’s just a matter of whether it’s as the AFC East champion or a wild-card team.

One big storyline here in what looks like a probable blowout is the first professional matchup between Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, and Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, the No. 15 pick. It’s way too early to make any career declarations, but Jones has been better – he also has been surrounded with way more talent and much better coaching so far.

Including playoffs, New England is 11-2 all-time vs. Jacksonville. The teams haven’t played since early in the 2018 season and the Jaguars won 31-20 in an upset. Then-Jags QB Blake Bortles outplayed Tom Brady that day, which perhaps has never been typed before.

The underdog is 5-2 against the spread in the past seven meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had it a bit rough learning on the job as he’s tied for the most interceptions thrown with 14 and has just nine touchdown passes. In fact, the Clemson star has just one TD throw in his past 280 attempts, the longest span of passes by a rookie with one passing TD or fewer in the past 30 seasons. Lawrence hasn’t had a TD throw in four straight games but at least three of those didn’t involve interceptions. In Sunday’s 26-21 loss at the Jets, good young running back James Robinson suffered an Achilles’ tear that obviously ends his season.

Robinson is the Jaguars’ leading rusher with 767 yards and has 979 yards of total offense. On Monday, the team put 11 players, four of them starters, on the COVID list as well. For sure starting left guard Andrew Norwell won’t be cleared by Sunday because he’s not vaccinated. Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its past five on the road.

New England Patriots

The Patriots lost sole possession of first place in the AFC East on Sunday in losing 33-21 at home to Buffalo. The Bills currently own the tiebreaker with a better record inside the division. Rookie QB Mac Jones had a rough game, completing 14-for-32 for 145 yards with two picks. His rating of 31.4 was a career low. Some are wondering if the Jacksonville native is starting to struggle in colder weather. With fellow running back Rhamondre Stevenson on the COVID list, Damien Harris blew up with 103 yards and three scores on 18 carries.

On Monday, the Patriots placed starting linebackers Matthew Judon and Ja’Whaun Bentley on the reserve/COVID list. New England is 5-0 ATS in its past five after a double-digit loss at home. No doubt the Pats win this game, but I’m always taking this many points in an NFL matchup.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Patriots?