Oddsmakers have this as the biggest mismatch game of the week and for good reason. The Lions rolled to a seventh straight victory, albeit in a wild 26-23 comeback in Houston last week. Playing without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the Jags fell in a sloppy 12-7 loss against Minnesota in Week 10.

Detroit opened as a 12.5-point favourite to win on the NFL odds, with the total pegged at 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Lions have won the last four meetings between the teams, including a 40-14 blowout in Week 13 of the 2022 season. Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown had a game-high 114 receiving yards and two TDs.

Everything seems stacked against Jacksonville on Sunday. The Jaguars have lost eight straight road games, they’re 1-6 in their last seven games against NFC opponents and they’ve only won once in their last six trips to Motown. Meanwhile, the Lions are on a seven-game heater and they’ve won five straight against AFC opponents.

Both teams have paid bettors as we near the halfway point of the season. Jacksonville is 6-4 against the spread and Detroit is 7-2 ATS. And while the Lions have covered in six of their last seven games, it makes sense to be cautious this week because of how massive the spread is.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones got his first start in a Jaguars uniform last week in place of Lawrence, who is dealing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. It was far from a positive showing, with Jones throwing for just 111 yards, no TDs and two interceptions while finishing with a 38.3 passer rating. He did manage to run in a TD on the ground, however. Jacksonville was held to just 143 total yards, the lowest number of Doug Pederson’s three-year tenure. Strap in Jags fans because Jones is expected to remain the starter for the next few weeks and potentially the rest of the season if Lawrence ends up undergoing shoulder surgery.

If you’re looking for anything to circle for Jacksonville in Week 11, Travis Etienne might be your best bet. While his 11 carries for 44 yards last week isn’t overly impressive, he should get a lot of touches against Detroit. Tank Bigsby is dealing with an ankle injury and the Jaguars clearly can’t rely on Jones to throw the ball. I’m taking the Over on Etienne’s rushing yards.

Detroit Lions

It was an absolutely wild stat line from Jared Goff last week, who completed only 15 of 30 pass attempts for 240 yards, two TDs and a career-high five interceptions. Entering the game, Goff hadn’t thrown an interception in five straight games and he only had four on the year. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery led the rushing attack, finishing with a combined 103 yards with a Montgomery score. Brown and Sam LaPorta each had a receiving TD.

Keep an eye on the injury status of LaPorta leading up to Sunday. Detroit’s No. 1 tight end suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and his status against Jacksonville is unknown. Regardless if LaPorta plays or not, Brock Wright should get more targets, so consider that when looking at props.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Jaguars vs. Lions?