How to Bet Week 6 of the 2025 NFL Season: Underdogs showing a lot of early value
The last two remaining undefeated teams fell last week, with the Eagles dropping a 21-17 decision to the Broncos and the Bills stunned 23-20 against the Patriots.
With Philadelphia and Buffalo looking to get back on track in prime-time, let’s take a look through Week 6’s slate of games and mine for some picks and best bets.
Here’s everything you need to know to bet Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season.
Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of NFL game odds, NFL futures and NFL specials and props.
TNF Eagles at Giants
A lot of early betting action came in on the Under for this game, dropping the total from 43.5 to 41. I still like the value of taking the Under. Philly has played the Under in three of five games, including last week’s total of 38. Meanwhile, New York has played the Under four times this year, with those games all producing 40 or less points.
Let’s also remember the last three head-to-heads between the teams have played the Under and it has also cashed in five of the last six. Four of those five Unders came in at less than 41 points.
One last point, short weeks historically produce lower scoring games. Since 1983, the Under is 62-30 in Thursday games with a total listed between 35.5 and 42 points. The average total is 34.8 points in those games.
Pick: Total Under 41
Broncos at Jets (in London)
The spread jumps out in this game. It’s a lot to ask of the Broncos to cover as 7.5-point favourites in a neutral site game even if it is against the NFL’s lone remaining winless team, the New York Jets.
Pass protection will be an issue for Denver this week without left tackle Ben Powers, who is out with a bicep injury. That’s been a huge strength for the team this season, so I wonder of a little bit of the shine wears off Bo Nix with a weaker offensive line.
Keep in mind, Nix averages the third-fewest intended air yards per game. He’ll do enough to beat a terrible Jets team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years, but I think even New York can cover this neutral site game.
Pick: Jets +7.5
49ers at Buccaneers
I like the 49ers to cover this week in a fairly high scoring game between a pair of 4-1 NFC teams. You can bet these individually or get a pretty decent two-leg same-game parlay for +250.
One of the reasons I like the Niners in this spot is both teams have played close games this season. In fact, all five games each team has played have been decided by one score.
Mac Jones has essentially saved San Francisco’s season and given the team no reason to rush Brock Purdy back. Jones is 3-0 with the 49ers, throwing for 905 yards with six TDs and just one interception.
San Francisco and Tampa Bay both boast elite offences, so this game should be a shootout. Combined, the teams are averaging almost 50 points of offence per game and they’ve each hit the Over three times.
Pick: 49ers +3, Over 47.5
SNF Lions at Chiefs
It’s a potential Super Bowl preview at Arrowhead for Sunday Night Football, with the Chiefs hosting the Lions.
Since a Week 1 loss to the Packers, Detroit has absolutely slapped their opponents around, winning their last four games by an average of 19 points.
Kansas City has been very hot and cold, with a loss last week in Jacksonville raising legitimate question about this team’s ability to go on another deep playoff run.
Give me Jared Goff and the points this week as the Lions are 52-21-1 against the spread (70.8 per cent) in the regular season over the last five years. In that time, Goff has 49 covers, while no other quarterback has even 40.
Pick: Lions +2.5
MNF Bills at Falcons
The Falcons enter Monday Night Football on plenty of rest after last week’s bye, while the Bills are looking to shake off a stunning upset against the Patriots for their first loss of the season.
I hate picking only favourites or only underdogs, but once again I’m going to have to take the points in this game as Atlanta is a home team playing on 15 days rest. The Falcons sport the best total defence (244 yards allowed per game) and passing defence (135 yards allowed) in the NFL, so they should be able to slow down Josh Allen enough to keep this game respectable.
Atlanta will likely run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, which should slow the game down and give the Bills less of a chance to run up the score. Buffalo has a great pass defence, but their rushing defence is ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 145.6 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Falcons +4.5
