How to Bet Week 12 of the 2025 NFL Season: Riding with the underdogs
It’s another jam-packed week in the NFL as teams continue to jockey for playoff positioning.
Here’s everything you need to know to bet Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.
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TNF Bills at Texans
Two teams likely bound for the playoffs open Week 12, with the 7-3 Buffalo Bills visiting the 5-5 Houston Texans.
Buffalo just laid a season-high 44 points in a win against Tampa Bay last week, but they’ll face a much tougher matchup in the Texans. Houston boasts the top ranked defensive unit in the NFL and rank top three in almost every major defensive statistic.
The Bills will counter with the second-ranked overall offensive unit. Buffalo ranks eighth in passing offence and they lead the league in rushing. James Cook has been particularly dominant, with the second-most rushing yards (968) in the NFL.
I see this as a close, lower scoring game. Houston’s top defensive unit should be able to hang with Buffalo, while the Bills’ rushing attack will slow the game down and limit points.
Pick: Texans +6, Under 43.5
Colts at Chiefs
Sitting at 5-5, winning the division is all but gone for Kansas City, who will look to turn things around at home against the 8-2 Indianapolis Colts in Week 12.
The Chiefs are off to the worst 10-game start in Patrick Mahomes’ career and essentially every game from now on is must-win. KC still opened as a 4.5-point favourite, but the line has moved a bit. It dropped as low as -3, but is now at -3.5. That extra half-point hook is too much for me.
Indianapolis comes in off a bye, so they should put up a good fight with two weeks to game plan. It’s hard to talk about the Colts without mentioning running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,139) and rushing TDs (15).
Kansas City is playing desperate football and they may win outright, but I don’t trust them to win by more than a field goal. Give me Indy and the points.
Pick: Colts +3.5
Eagles at Cowboys
The top two teams in the NFC East go at it in Arlington, with the 8-2 Eagles visiting the 4-5-1 Cowboys.
Philadelphia leads the NFC at the moment, but it hasn’t been pretty. The Eagles slugged out a 10-7 win in Green Bay two weeks ago before scraping by the Lions 16-9 at home last week. Philly ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in total offence/defence, rushing offence/defence and passing offence/defence.
Meanwhile, Dallas doesn’t seem to know who they are. They pumped the Raiders 33-16 on Monday Night Football, but they’ve also suffered humiliating losses against Denver, Arizona and Carolina over the last month.
Both teams have suffered from Jekyll and Hyde syndrome this year, so I’ll focus on the total. The Cowboys have the second-highest scoring offence (29.6 points per game) in the NFL, so I’ll lean on them to run the score up at home.
Pick: Over 47.5
SNF Buccaneers at Rams
The 8-2 Rams jumped to the top of the NFC West standings with last week’s massive win over the Seahawks. Now they’ll welcome a 6-4 Bucs squad that was just beatdown by Buffalo.
L.A.’s win last week was huge, but it also wasn’t overly impressive. The Rams allowed 414 total yards (gained 249) and they lost the first down battle 26-12. If it wasn’t for Sam Darnold throwing four interceptions, it could have been a different result.
The Bucs received some positive news with running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Chris Godwin returning to practice. That obviously helps Baker Mayfield, who has managed to keep Tampa’s offence humming despite the injury bug.
This is a pretty big number for the Rams to cover against a playoff-bound team like the Bucs. I put Tampa Bay and Seattle at about the same danger level and L.A. barely snuck past the Seahawks last week. Give me Baker and the boys to cover.
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5
MNF Panthers at 49ers
The 6-5 Carolina Panthers have been one of the surprises of the season as they stand as legitimate threats to win the NFC South. Carolina hits the road in Week 12 to face a 7-4 San Francisco squad looking to stay afloat in the ultra competitive NFC West.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy returned from a six-game injury absence last week and didn’t miss a beat, connecting on 19 of 26 passes for 200 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. That’s scary for the rest of the league considering San Francisco still boasted the second-best passing offence in the NFL without Purdy.
Carolina will counter with third-year pivot Bryce Young, who just threw for a career-high 448 yards and three TDs in a comeback overtime win in Atlanta last week. However, the Panthers have been more effective with the rush. Rico Dowdle is fourth in rushing this season (848 yards, five TDs) and he’ll be key in exploiting San Francisco’s average rushing defence.
I’m hearing a lot of barking this week because I’m on another underdog with Carolina. The Niners just have too many injury questions for me to be comfortable taking them to cover by a touchdown.
Pick: Panthers +7, Over 49
