Falcons vs. Saints Point Spread: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Nov 16, 2020

matt ryan atlanta falcons

The Atlanta Falcons come out of their bye playing their best football of the season as they visit the NFC South rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

Atlanta
4-12
AT
November 22, 2020, 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread +3.5 -115
Moneyline +152
Over / Under o +49.5

64%

Betting Action

36%

Pointspread -3.5 -105
Moneyline -183
Over / Under u +49.5

64%

Betting Action

36%

The opening NFL odds are in flux because of the status of Drew Brees.

NFL Week 11 Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Maybe the best quarterback rivalry in the NFC over the past decade or so has been Atlanta’s Matt Ryan against New Orleans’ Drew Brees – no offense to Ryan, but how has he won an NFL MVP Award in his career and Brees hasn’t? This could be the penultimate time the two face off with the Saints visiting the Falcons in just two weeks to wrap up the season series. There’s a very small chance they could meet in the playoffs. Both will be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame down the road. Then again, Brees may not play Sunday due to injury.

Brees is expected to retire after this season, and there has been talk Atlanta might look into trading Ryan. That will largely depend on how the Falcons play the rest of the way and where the land in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Last season, the teams split with each winning at home. The biggest upset of 2019 was a 1-7 Falcons team winning 26-9 at a 7-2 Saints team in Week 10. Brees was sacked six times as his team didn’t find the end zone – New Orleans had never been held without a TD at home since Brees joined the team in 2006 as a free agent and in a game he started.

New Orleans is 6-4 in the past 10 meetings and 7-3 against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons

Interim head coach Raheem Morris, a former head coach of the Tampa Bay Bucs, is certainly making a case to earn the full-time job as the Falcons are 3-1 under him since firing Dan Quinn and should be 4-0 if not for a boneheaded play in Week 7 by Todd Gurley that led to a miracle one-point loss to Detroit. At 3-6, the Falcons are still in the Wild-Card hunt, especially with that added playoff spot in each conference.

Even though Morris is a defensive guy, Ryan is on fire in the past four games in completing at least 70 percent in each of them with eight touchdown passes and two interceptions. Morris’ influence is showing on defence, too, as Atlanta was allowing 32 points per game during its 0-5 start and is giving up 23 points per game in the past four.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints should open around 7-point favourites if Brees can play but certainly down a few points if he can’t. He had to leave Sunday’s 27-13 win over the 49ers with rib injuries and was to have an MRI and X-rays on Monday to determine how serious. Former Bucs quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston presumably would start in Brees’ place – Winston obviously knows the Falcons well as the Bucs also are in the NFC South — but Taysom Hill also likely would see some snaps under centre.

New Orleans was down 10-0 early vs. the short-handed Niners but won 27-13 to keep control of the NFC South. Running back Alvin Kamara is an MVP candidate – he won’t win it but might win NFL Offensive Player of the Year – and rushed for two scores while catching a TD pass. It was New Orleans’ sixth straight win. Also monitor the injury status of cornerback and former NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore, who left Sunday with an oblique injury.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Falcons vs. Saints?

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