Falcons vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 9 Odds, Prediction
Atlanta, now 3-4, lost its second straight game, this time with backup QB Kirk Cousins under center, with a hapless performance in a 34-10 defeat at home to the lowly Miami Dolphins. Bijan Robinson was held to 48 total yards in his worst game of the season, and the Dirty Birds didn’t reach the end zone until late in the fourth quarter.
Atlanta’s reward for such a lackluster performance is a date in Foxborough with the Patriots, who scored three third-quarter touchdowns to pull away from Myles Garrett and the Cleveland Browns, 32-13.
Atlanta hopes the return of several key players, including QB Michael Penix Jr. and WR Drake London, can revive the team’s sagging playoff hopes with a dynamic performance on the road.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
On the NFL odds board, Atlanta is 1-2 against the spread on the road, where the Falcons have lost two straight while scoring 10 points combined. However, they’re one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to betting the Under, as it’s cashed in six of their seven games.
New England is 5-0 straight up and against the spread in its last five contests. The team is 2-2 straight up and ATS at home, where the Pats have won two straight. New England has won seven straight against the Falcons, covering the spread in each game, dating back to November 1998.
Atlanta Falcons
It doesn’t matter who’s under center, Penix Jr. or Cousins. The Falcons offence is extremely one-dimensional right now. If Robinson is contained, forget about it. The team is 28th in the league in scoring, averaging just 17.1 points per game.
Their hope on Sunday is for the league’s top-ranked (149.1 YPG) pass defence to contain Drake Maye, New England’s superstar-in-the-making QB. The Falcons allowed four touchdown passes to Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa last week, so don’t hold your breath.
In addition to Penix Jr. and London, the Falcons are also expecting LB Jalon Walker and DB Billy Bowman Jr. back on defence.
New England Patriots
Maye’s star is on the rise. He completed 75% of his passes for 282 yards and three third-quarter touchdowns last week. He’s fifth in the league with 2,026 yards passing, and his 118.7 QBR ranking trails only Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.
However, Maye was sacked six times last week, five of which were by Garrett. He’s been sacked 28 times this season, trailing only Tennessee Titans rookie Cam Ward. When Maye has the time and space to make moves and all his reads, he’s been decimating opposing defences.
But the Patriots have also played an extremely weak schedule. The Falcons’ pass defence is a good test for the second-year stud.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Falcons vs. Patriots?
Losing by 24 points to a downtrodden Dolphins squad last week was the low point for the Falcons this season. Can they rebound against one of the league’s hottest teams?
The answer should be a resounding “No!” New England is just 2-2 at home, but the Patriots have outscored their last two opponents at Gillette Stadium 74-26. The Falcons should fare better than the Browns and the Carolina Panthers, but not by much.
New England should take its sixth straight, 28-21.
ATL
NE