Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 4 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Sep 25, 2018


Imagine a world where the Dolphins are 4-0 with a three-game lead and a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Patriots at the end of September. That’s the kind of world we could be living in unless the Pats wake up.

September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +7 -120
Moneyline +255
Over / Under o +50.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -7 +100
Moneyline -315
Over / Under u +50.5


Betting Action


So far, New England has a win over the winless Houston Texans. Other than that, they’ve been smoked by the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. They can right the ship with a win on Sunday against a team they normally dominate at home.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

After opening the season with a 27-20 win over the Houston Texans, the Patriots have dropped back-to-back games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. New England is 1-2 against the spread, but will be a seven-point favorite at home this weekend. The Patriots are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five home games against Miami.

The Dolphins are 3-0 against the spread following a 28-20 win over the Oakland Raiders. Miami has won each of its three games by seven points or more. The total has gone over in 10 of the Dolphins last 14 games overall. The total for this week’s game has been set at 48 points.

Miami Dolphins

Miami has held its first three opponents to an average of 17.3 points per game, which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL heading in to Week 4. The Dolphins defence will have its hands full this week against a New England offence that outscored them 35-14 when these teams met at Gillette Stadium a year ago. It doesn’t help that the team lost defensive end William Hayes to a season-ending injury last week.

Oakland outgained Miami 434-373 in total yards and 25-13 in first downs last week, so Miami’s win – and record – might not be as good as it sounds. At the same time, Ryan Tannehill is playing well and is coming off his best performance of the season with 289 passing yards and three scores. As long as he continues to move the football without turning it over, Miami should be able to challenge the Patriots on the road. The Dolphins are playing with confidence following a 3-0 start. Now they get an opportunity to prove they are for real in the AFC East.

New England Patriots

While almost everything has gone right for Miami this season, almost everything went wrong for New England in its latest loss. Tom Brady was held to 14-of-26 for 133 yards with a touchdown and an interception versus Detroit. He could get some help this week with Josh Gordon expected to make his Patriots debut. Meanwhile, the Patriots defence struggled to slow down Matt Stafford and the Lions offence. Stafford threw for 262 yards and two scores.

Meanwhile, rookie running back Kerryon Johnson averaged 6.3 yards per carry while rushing for 101 yards. It marked the first time since 2013 that one of Detroit’s running backs topped 100 yards rushing in a game. New England has a number of holes to fill on both sides of the football. While Gordon (this week) and Julian Edelman (next week) should help Brady on offence, the relative lack of talent in the Patriots front-seven could haunt them this season. New England will approach this game with a sense of desperation as they attempt to avoid a third straight loss.

We’ve seen New England struggle in September before, so don’t put too much stock in it. They’ll find a way to win and get right back in the thick of things in the AFC East.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction