Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

Nik Kowalski | Updated Sep 09, 2020

ryan fitzpatrick tua tagovailoa

Miami's future is underway with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa arriving via the draft, but it’s still 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick’s offence for the time being.

September 13, 2020, 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
Pointspread +7.5 -117
Moneyline +270
Over / Under o +41.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -7.5 -103
Moneyline -328
Over / Under u +41.5


Betting Action


For the first time in 20 years, the New England Patriots will be starting a season without Tom Brady as their starting quarterback. Instead, Brady is in Tampa Bay and 2015 MVP Cam Newton is the guy in Foxborough.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Dolphins giving the Patriots troubles is well-documented. Although the Pats are 6-4 in their last 10 against Miami, it was the Dolphins who came into Gillette Stadium late last season for a 27-24 upset win that cost New England a playoff bye.

It still shouldn’t be ignored that the Patriots are winners of 10 of their last 11 home games against the Dolphins. They are also victorious in 17 of their last 20 home games overall.

New England has the edge as a -6.5 favourite, according to oddsmakers.

Miami Dolphins

After going 5-11 last year, the Dolphins were trending upward after winning their final two games. Miami was busy in the offseason too, adding cornerback Byron Jones, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, defensive end Shaq Lawson, as well as running backs Jordan Howard and Matt Breida.

Brian Flores’ club has some questions marks in terms of depth on offence, as outside of DeVante Parker there isn’t much star power. But the Dolphins’ focus this offseason was clearly in the backfield after they averaged a league-worst 72.3 rushing yards per game last year.

Miami also gave up a league-worst 30.9 points per game too, but there’s no question their defensive additions should help lower that number — especially with Jones in the secondary.

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is transitioning to life after Brady, and life without some defensive stars. New England led the 2019–20 season in both yards and points against, but have suffered several blows to their defensive unit.

Linebackers Van Noy and Jamie Collins left in free agency, while veterans Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung have opted-out of the 2020–21 season. New England’s secondary is still elite with likes of Stephon Gilmore and Devin and Jason McCourty, who can all score themselves.

With Newton under centre for the first time in a year, there are a ton of question marks around the Patriots’ offence. Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead all return in the backfield, but outside of Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry New England is grasping at receiver.

Expect a run-heavy offence, with Belichick easing Newton in and relying on his defence.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Patriots?