Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: NFL Week 18 Odds, Prediction
The New England Patriots are going for the top seed in the AFC when they close out their regular season by hosting the Miami Dolphins.
New England’s tied with Denver for the one-seed but need a Broncos loss along with a win over Miami to get the important first-round bye plus home field in the playoffs. This means MVP favourite Drake Maye will start at QB, although there is a potential he’ll be without top receiver Stefon Diggs who is facing legal charges. The same goes for defensive tackle Christian Barmore.
The 7-9 Dolphins continue to trot out rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers and the seventh-round pick isn’t doing too bad. Ewers passed for 173 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 20-17 win versus Tampa Bay and now he and this eliminated Dolphins squad has a chance to play spoiler again versus their division-champion Patriots.
Kickoff at Gillette Stadium goes at 4:25 p.m. EST with the Patriots still a 10.5-point favourite, and -650 on the moneyline while the total is at 45.5 on the NFL odds.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The last time an eliminated Dolphins squad rolled into New England during the final week of the regular season, a 5-11 Miami team beat a 12-4 New England team to deny them a first-round bye in the playoffs. The parallels are real, and Miami continues to have the Patriots’ number. The Dolphins are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Patriots and 9-1 ATS in that stretch. Miami’s won in three of their last four trips to Foxborough too.
The over has hit in eight of New England’s last 10 outings and four of their last six against Miami. These teams played back in Week 2 and the Patriots came out on top, 33-27. New England’s reached at least 24 points in 11 straight games but have failed to hit that number in each of their most recent four home games against Miami.
Miami Dolphins
Quinn Ewers picked up his first NFL win last week and did so without relying on the household names in the Dolphins offence. Theo Wease Jr. led Miami with 63 receiving yards last week, and Greg Dulcich was the only other pass-catcher above 30 yards for the Dolphins and both found the end zone. De’Von Achane received 18 carries for 83 yards, but expect sophomore running back Jaylen Wright to see a lot more action in the backfield in this regular season finale.
Achane, along with receiver Jaylen Waddle and tight end Darren Waller all did not practice on Wednesday. Waddle is 90 yards shy of his fourth 1,000-yard season in five years, but exited last week with a ribs injury. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick also was a DNP on Wednesday, meaning it could be a plethora of backups and youngsters out on the field on Sunday in New England.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye may have solidified his first NFL MVP award last week when he tossed for a career-high five touchdowns in a 42-10 win over the New York Jets. The win helped the Patriots clinch the AFC East for the first time since 2019. Maye also finished the day 19 of 21 passing and is now a -375 favourite to win the MVP.
Head coach Mike Vrabel told reporters the Patriots starters are expected to play Sunday since the first seed in the AFC is still in their grasp. If Stefon Diggs is apart of that group, he is 30 receiving yards away from his seventh 1,000-yard season. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson received 19 carries last week and is now 142 rushing yards away from 1,000 on the year. Tight end Hunter Henry hauled in a touchdown for the second straight game and is now the team leader with seven receiving scores this season.
NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Patriots?
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