The Pack opened as 3-point favourites on the NFL odds with a total of 47.5.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

For years, the American Thanksgiving holiday has been set up where the Detroit Lions host the first kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET (this year vs. Chicago), the Dallas Cowboys host the 4:30 ET kickoff (this year vs. NY Giants) and the primetime game rotates around with no set host.

This marks the second straight year that Green Bay has played on Thanksgiving but only the second time at home on the holiday since 1923 (Chicago, 2015). It starts a run of four consecutive primetime games, which would be the first time the Packers have played four straight such games in a single season since the 1970 merger.

Miami hasn’t played on Thanksgiving since 2011 in Dallas but is 5-2 all-time on the holiday. It marks the first-ever Thursday meeting between the Dolphins and Packers, and both are chasing wild-card spots in their conferences. The Packers still have an outside shot of catching Detroit for the NFC North title, but it’s very unlikely. Green Bay is -1600 to make the playoffs. The Dolphins absolutely are not catching the Bills for the AFC East title and are +250 for the postseason.

The franchises have played 16 times previously, all in the regular season, with Miami up 10-6. Green Bay won the last meeting 26-20 in South Florida in 2022.

Miami Dolphins

Miami lost its first three games out of a Week 6 bye to fall to 2-6, and it looked as if the team’s playoff hopes were dead but it won a third straight game on Sunday, 34-15 over New England. Tua Tagovailoa has been brilliant since returning from a four-game absence due to a concussion and was 29-for-40 for 317 yards and four scores on Sunday. It was Tua’s first 300-yard game since Week 1 and first time with back-to-back games of at least three TD passes since Weeks 8-10 in 2022. During the three-game winning streak, Miami is averaging 30.3 points per game. Do note, though, that Tua has historically really struggled in cold weather as have the Dolphins in general, and the projected low temperate in Green Bay on Thursday night is 18 degrees – although snow isn’t in the forecast. Linebacker Anthony Walker left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and cornerback Kendall Fuller missed a second straight game with a concussion. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its past five games.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay caught a major break Sunday in that San Francisco was eviscerated by injuries when it visited Lambeau Field, including missing starting QB Brock Purdy. Thus, no real surprise that the Packers trounced the defending NFC champions 38-10 for a second straight win and sixth in the past seven games. For the first time this season, QB Jordan Love didn’t have a pick (one was dropped and one wiped out via penalty) and the threw for two scores, while tailback Josh Jacobs ran for three TDs and also became the first player to hit 100 yards rushing against the 49ers in the last 55 regular-season games, the fourth-longest streak by any team since the merger. Xavier McKinney had his seventh interception of the year defensively, tied for the league lead and most by a Packers player in a season since Hall of Famer Charles Woodson in 2011. However, the Pack are likely going to be without receiver Romeo Doubs, cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper on Monday due to injuries. Green Bay is 8-3 SU in its past 11 at home. 

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Packers?