Well, that was an unexpected start to the season. The New York Jets shocked the world with a 31-point victory over the host Detroit Lions in Week 1 – and have oddsmakers’ favour as they host the Miami Dolphins in their home opener Sunday afternoon. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold overcame a shaky start to throw a pair of touchdown passes in his NFL debut. The Dolphins sat through two lengthy delays en route to a 27-20 win over Tennessee.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Oddsmakers have these teams evenly matched on a neutral field, as both took advantage of injuries and sloppy play from their opponents to secure opening-week victories. If this line holds, it will mark the first time since 2016 that the Jets have been a home favourite of between one and three points – and recent history hasn’t been kind to them, as they’ve covered the spread just once in their previous seven games in this situation.
And while it was certainly heartening for fans and bettors to see the Jets roll to a 48-point explosion in the Motor City, big games have generally led to major letdowns the following game. New York is 0-4 ATS in its past four games after scoring 30 or more points in its previous contest, and is 1-4 O/U in its last five under similar circumstances. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have their own cold streak to address, having failed to cover any of their past five road games.
The Dolphins were able to upend the banged-up Titans in Week 1, but this game presents a major challenge for a team that hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a road game since Dec. 24, 2016. And that stretch has coincided with some major defensive shortcomings for the ‘Fins, which has surrendered at least 29 points in four of its past five games away from Miami – including two 40-point performances from Baltimore and Carolina last season.
New York Jets
Facing the AFC East has brought out the best in the Jets from a cover standpoint over the past few years, especially at MetLife Stadium. While New York is just 5-6 SU in its past 11 home games against divisional foes, it has covered nine times in that span – including each of its previous four. Even more impressively, the Jets have permitted more than 24 points just once over that span, while holding opponents below 20 points four times.