Dolphins vs. Colts Point Spread: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction
Week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season includes a contest between the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It is a showdown featuring two AFC rivals who both missed the playoffs with 8-9 records last year.
These two teams faced each other in Week 7 of the 2024 campaign in Miami, where Indianapolis pulled off a 16-10 road win. The Dolphins were without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in that matchup, instead relegated to using a tandem of Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle.
NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis
This projects to be one of the most competitive games on the NFL’s opening-week slate. Both sides come in at -110 on the money line, so it really is all even on the NFL odds board. Miami is a +1 underdog on the point spread (-115), while Indianapolis is a -1 favourite (-105). You can get the game total at 46.5 points, with both the over and the under priced at -110.
The Colts have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head encounters dating back to 2003. However, each team has covered the spread three times in the last six meetings dating back to 2013. The under has cashed in four of the last five games between Miami and Indianapolis.
Miami Dolphins
Just as it was last year and really every year since he was drafted with the No. 5 overall pick in 2020, Tagovailoa’s health is the key to Miami’s success. Tagovailoa, who has a concerning history with concussions, has played at least 10 games in all of his seasons as a professional but has suited up for more than 13 only once (a full 17 in 2023).
The former Alabama standout is ready to go for the 2025 season opener, but the Dolphins do have some injury concerns. Running back De’Von Achane (calf) and receiver Tyreek Hill (oblique) are questionable. Both guys are reportedly trending in the right direction in advance of Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts
The quarterback position has also been the focal point of this Indianapolis squad. Newcomer Daniel Jones, who spent six years with the New York Giants, won the job in an offseason battle with 2023 No. 4 overall draft pick Anthony Richardson. Jones’ upside is limited – certainly compared to that of Richardson – but the veteran has a lot of experience and can bring stability to Indianapolis’ offence.
As they did in 2024, the Colts will likely rely on their defence. That unit ranked No. 7 league-wide in turnovers forced with 25 last season. A front line featuring Kwity Paye, Laiatu Latu, DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart should be especially strong.
Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Colts?
Take a look at all of our NFL futures ahead of Week 1.
These two teams have a history of playing relatively low-scoring affairs against each other; Sunday’s matchup projects to be no different. The Colts’ offence is uninspiring with Jones under center, but the defence looks decent on paper. As for the Dolphins’ defence, it finished fourth in the NFL in yards allowed last year.
The difference this weekend could simply be that Tagovailoa is healthy at the start of a new season. A more dynamic Miami offence may be able to score just enough points to get out of Indianapolis with a hard-fought 24-20 victory.
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