Fans and pundits thought the world of the Miami Dolphins in October, yet they practically need crutches to get onto the field this weekend after crawling to an 11-6 record. As for the champs, the Kansas City Chiefs also finished 11-6, but it just wasn’t the same this year. Shock defeats and some alarmingly poor wide receiver play have some wondering if they can defend their title.

Even the NFL odds are a little dubious. The Chiefs are perched as -4 favourites, so it should be a close game.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Much like Saturday’s other Wild Card game, these opponents are familiar with one another. They met in Frankfurt back in November when the Chiefs downed the Dolphins 21-14. Andy Reid’s side raced out to a comfortable 21-0 advantage before Mike McDaniel’s unit made it interesting in the second half. Moreover, the Chiefs are riding a four-game winning streak over the Dolphins that dates back to the 2014 season.

It seems as if the Miami Dolphins franchise has paid some sort of cosmic price for being the only team to win a Super Bowl undefeated and then enjoying the Dan Marino years. Before last year’s Wild Card appearance, the Dolphins had played four postseason games in 22 years. To that point, the last time Miami won was in 2000. ATS this season the Dolphins were a decent 10-7, although they’ve failed to cover twice in a row.

After years of playoff failure along came QB Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Since then, KC has made the playoffs every year and has never been eliminated earlier than the AFC championship game. Add to that three Super Bowl appearances and two rings and you have yourself the making of a dynasty. Mahomes has never played a road playoff game and that still won’t happen until at least next week, assuming the Chiefs beat the Dolphins. They were only 9-8 ATS this season.

Miami Dolphins

Miami doesn’t resemble the team that embarrassed the Denver Broncos 70-20 in September. Their injury list resembles that of an army. That LBs Cameron Goode and Andrew Van Ginkel are listed as out is bad news. CB Xavier Howard is questionable, as are WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Raheem Mostert. That’s barely half the list….

When there is QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Tyreek Hill there’s always a chance. On the flip side, that’s what many believed on Sunday night at home to the Buffalo Bills with the AFC East on the line and Miami still lost, 21-14. Hill versus the team he had so much success with is a terrific subplot. One of the biggest question marks is Miami’s ability to go punch for punch against a heavyweight. Other than the Cowboys game, the Dolphins have looked second-best every time this season.

A key category Miami could pounce on is an easily overlooked one. The Dolphins finished the season +2 in the turnover differential. The Chiefs were -11.

Kansas City Chiefs

It’s so tempting to say “start your engines” with the Chiefs again making the playoffs, but the truth is feels as if the engine is faulty this season. It’s not that the major stats look bad. Patrick Mahomes was sixth in passing yards and Travis Kelce had almost 1,000. Isiah Pacheco went for 935 yards on the ground. On the flip side, too many drives finished in field goal attempts and guys like Kadarius Toney and rookie Rashee Rice had had tumultuous seasons.

Suddenly the name of the game in KC is the defence. The Chiefs are second in yards allowed (298.8) and fourth against the pass (176.5). They’ve certainly held the fort while the offence has struggled. Chris Jones has 10.5 sacks. Given the Dolphins’ situation with injuries, the home-field advantage, and the old “defence wins championships” philosophy, this could work in Kansas City’s favour.

RB Jerick McKinnon is still on IR.

Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Chiefs?

DOLPHINS

Away

17

CHIEFS

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