Dolphins vs. Browns Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 27, 2024

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Two teams largely playing out the string on disappointing seasons meet on Sunday afternoon in Week 17 – it was flexed out of primetime -- when the Miami Dolphins visit the Cleveland Browns.

Miami
8-9
AT
December 29, 2024, 4:05 PM ET
FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland
3-14
Pointspread -3 -115
Moneyline -175
Over / Under o +32.5
Pointspread +3 -105
Moneyline +145
Over / Under u +32.5

Miami opened as a 6.5-point favourite on the NFL odds.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

This originally was to be the Sunday night game in Week 17, but with few postseason implications was bumped to the afternoon and Falcons-Commanders took the primetime spot. I personally never would have imagined back in early September that Miami-Cleveland would be less important than Atlanta-Washington, but what makes the NFL great is parity.

It’s the home finale for the Browns and ownership has said that Coach Kevin Stefanski will retain his job even with the massively disappointing season. What the team does at quarterback with that terrible Deshaun Watson contract will be one of the NFL’s big offseason stories. Cleveland would probably release Watson at this point if it was financially doable. Owner Jimmy Haslam didn’t commit to Watson being on next year’s roster.

Miami has a playoff-caliber offence led by Tua Tagovailoa but when he missed four early season games due to a concussion and the team went 1-3 in those, it pretty much ruined the Dolphins’ postseason chances – although they still are mathematically alive. Coach Mike McDaniel absolutely will return next year as will Tua, who historically has been awful in games with a kickoff temperature below 40 degrees. That actually might not be the case Sunday.

Miami leads the all-time series 12-9, including two playoff games, and won the last meeting 39-17 at home in November 2022. Tagovailoa threw for 285 yards and three scores. Jacoby Brissett was Cleveland’s QB that day.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins kept their slim AFC wild-card hopes alive with a 29-17 home win over San Francisco on Sunday despite playing without former Pro Bowl wideout Jaylen Waddle due to injury – he might be back this week. Fellow star WR Tyreek Hill was listed as questionable because of a wrist injury, which he has battled throughout the season. He did play and had a TD catch but was otherwise not a big factor and had three drops.

Tua Tagovailoa was 22-for-34 for 215 yards and a TD but had his streak of eight straight starts completing at least 70 per cent of his passes, tied for the NFL’s longest run since 1950, come to an end. Jonnu Smith had six catches for 62 yards and has set franchise season records for a tight end in receptions (76) and receiving yards (802). Miami improved to 17-4 vs. 500 or worse teams since the start of the 2023 season compared to 1-10 vs. teams entering with a winning record. The Dolphins have to win out and get help to reach the playoffs. They are 6-12 ATS in their past 18.

Cleveland Browns

AFC North last-place Cleveland gave second-year Dorian Thompson-Robinson his first start of the season at quarterback on Sunday, and it went about as well as expected in a 24-6 home defeat to Cincinnati, the Browns’ fourth straight loss – each by at least nine points. It appears to be a team that has quit. Thompson-Robinson passed for 157 yards and two interceptions, had 49 yards rushing and was sacked five times. He will start again here as long as a calf injury suffered Sunday isn’t a big deal.

The Browns have become the first NFL team with at least three turnovers in five straight games since the 2013 Lions did it six in a row. Pass-rusher Myles Garrett was a bright spot in the loss with his 12th sack of the season to reach triple digits career. He became the fourth-fastest player to reach 100 career sacks since 1982 and joined Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor (1985-89) as only players with at last 12 sacks in five consecutive seasons (since 1982 when sacks became official statistic). Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games.

NFL Prediction: Who Will Win Dolphins vs. Browns?

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