Dolphins vs. Bills Point Spread: NFL Week 17 Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Dec 25, 2018

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The Dolphins playoff hopes were looking up just two weeks ago after a miracle last-second play scored them a victory over the Patriots. However, back-to-back losses at Minnesota and Jacksonville have deflated the sails.

Miami
7-9
AT
December 30, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
New Era Field
Buffalo
6-10
Pointspread +5.5 -105
Moneyline +215
Over / Under o +39.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

Pointspread -5.5 -115
Moneyline -265
Over / Under u +39.5

48%

Betting Action

52%

Now they’ll just play out their final game of the season at Buffalo and while it might not mean anything in terms of the playoff standings, head coach Adam Gase could get fired if the Dolphins don’t perform well.

NFL Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Dolphins don’t play particularly well in Buffalo as they’ve dropped 17 of the last 26 meetings. The Bills have covered the spread in 16 of those games.

The Dolphins have been a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points three times this season and they’ve failed to cover each time. They are 2-5 ATS in their seven road games this season. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 2-5 ATS at home this season and 0-2 ATS as a favorite.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were 6-1 at home this season going into last week’s visit from Jacksonville, which is what makes the 17-7 home loss that much more shocking. The Jags haven’t had a pulse in a good month but it was Miami that looked listless last week. Now they have to go on the road – where they are just 1-6 this season – and try to eke out a win at Buffalo. It’s not going to help that this is a warm-weather team traveling up north into the wintery conditions of New York.

The biggest concern for the Dolphins has to be their run defence. When Buffalo has success, it’s because they’re able to move the ball on the ground. Rookie quarterback Josh Allen is inconsistent as a passer. However, the Dolphins run defence has been very welcoming to opponents this year as they rank 30th in rushing yards per game allowed. If the Bills approach that number, Miami won’t win.

Buffalo Bills

What are we to make of the Bills? They’ve lost three of four and the lone win was a one-point success against the lowly Detroit Lions. There are some real concerns about the identity of this team going forward. Quarterback Josh Allen has been lousy as a passer this season and has completed less than 50% of his passes the last three weeks. He has just two touchdown passes and four interceptions in that span. What’s of greater concern is that he’s the team’s leading rusher on the season and remember that he’s missed four games. Part of the problem is that he’s still very raw as a player and another issue is that there aren’t many weapons around him.

The main difference here is that the Bills should be a little more upbeat than the Dolphins, who were eliminated from playoff contention last week. It won’t be pretty but the Bills will find a way to win.

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction

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